Matthew Nix had driven past the brewery in Sauganash for years, but — not much of a weekday drinker — had never stopped in.
When he finally decided to meet friends at the taproom on a recent Saturday to play some cards, he found bartenders dancing on countertops, dogs wearing sweaters and the last of the beer draining from the tap. It was the farewell party for Alarmist Brewing.
“This is my first time here, first and obviously last,” said Nix, 36, a high school teacher living in the Edgewater neighborhood, about the closure.
In Illinois and across the country, breweries have been struggling as consumers seek healthier drinking habits or have a wider range of options, such as THC-infused drinks, as business costs continue to rise. Many have closed their doors, while others have redefined its meaning as a social space that offers beverage variety and events.
The number of U.S breweries closing outpaced those that opened for the second year in a row in 2025 for a net loss of 179 last year, according to preliminary 2025 data from Brewers Association, a trade group for small American brewers.
It stands in stark contrast from a decade ago — a golden age — for craft brewers when the number of breweries opening was about 10 times higher than those closing, according to Matt Gacioch, staff economist at Brewers Association.
One industry challenge is that Americans are now drinking less. A 2025 Gallup poll showed that only 54% of U.S. adults said they consume alcohol — the lowest percentage in 90 years.
Figures are even lower among young adults with only 50% reporting that they drink alcohol. These numbers fall in line with healthier drinking trends like “sober curious” and “Dry January,” which seek mindful and moderate drinking.
On top of drinking less, consumers are also seeking wider beverage options from nonalcoholic drinks to hard seltzers, which adds pressure for traditional craft breweries specializing in beer.
Sports and music arena United Center is expected to start selling THC-infused drinks Señorita and Rythm at its stands this month — apparently the largest U.S. arena to do so.
“Bringing Señorita and Rythm to the United Center reflects a simple truth: Consumers want nonalcoholic options, and leading venues are responding,” Ben Kovler, Rythm, Inc. chairman and interim CEO, said in a statement last month.
Other music venues that sell cannabis-derived drinks are the Salt Shed, Riviera, Ramova Theatre and Thalia Hall, taking up coveted beverage shelf space.
“There’s just so much more competition in terms of consumer attention and physical retail space,” Gacioch said. “There’s this whole world of other options.”
Rising business expenses and the cost of goods like aluminum have also contributed to the strain, particularly after the pandemic.
“You have the increased cost of just about everything,” said Andrew Heritage, chief economist at the Beer Institute, noting the increase in operating costs, rent and labor.
Some Chicago breweries were unable to recover, with Lo Rez Brewing in the Pilsen neighborhood closing its doors in 2023 in what cofounder Dave Dahl called a “pandemic casualty.” Another staple in the craft industry, Metropolitan Brewing, one of Chicago’s oldest, closed in 2023 after filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy.
Most recently, award-winning Alarmist Brewing closed on Feb. 1 after years of struggling with falling business after the pandemic.
“The bottom line is we’re just not selling,” said Alarmist owner Gary Gulley. “It just never recovered since COVID.”
Alarmist Brewing owner Gary Gulley, center, receives a hug from Keith Willert at the Sauganash neighborhood brewery and taproom in Chicago, Jan. 31, 2026. (Chris Sweda/Chicago Tribune)
Illinois lost over 30 breweries in two years after 2020, falling to 218 total breweries, according to data from the Beer Institute. By 2024, the number of Illinois breweries rebounded to 251.
Some breweries have adapted to create third spaces, a place to mingle and play trivia with friends — and pups.
“I like a place where you can bring your dog, you can bring a book,” Nix said, likening these breweries to social spaces where you can play card games.
One brewery that has been bolstering events and activities is Maplewood Brewery and Distillery in the Logan Square neighborhood. The decade-old brewery holds events like its upcoming Pulaski Day Party to celebrate its Pulaski pilsner, trivia nights and beer festivals to cultivate brand loyalty.
“We have our core brand that we make, but we’re always coming out with something new and fun … that’s helped us out,” said Paul Megalis, co-owner and CFO of Maplewood Brewery.
Their expansive beverage options include ready-to-drink rum punch cocktails, in-house coffee liqueurs for espresso martini lovers and seasonal beer concoctions.
“We’ve essentially been a beverage company since Day 1, and so we’ve always had a diversified portfolio. I mean, we just hustle,” Megalis said.
They plan to open a second location in Glen Ellyn slated for this spring.
Despite the changing tides in the craft beer business, experts believe craft breweries are evolving not disappearing.
“Craft beer industry is nothing if not creative,” Gacioch said.
A woman drinks a beer in a packed taproom at Alarmist Brewing, in Chicago’s Sauganash neighborhood on Jan. 31, 2026. (Chris Sweda/Chicago Tribune)
UAW Stellantis workers are reportedly disappointed because they are not getting profit sharing checks from 2025. This follows the company facing a multibillion dollar deficit last year. It’s also the first time Stellantis hasn’t provided a profit-sharing bonus since the recession.
The Big Three has faced obstacles because of tariff uncertainty, Electric vehicle whiplash, interest rates and more, but Ford and GM still provided a profit-sharing checks to their employees. Stellantis says that it expects 2026 and its expanding product wave to bring profitable growth in North America.
Additional headlines for Friday, Feb. 27, 2016
Personnel shortage in behavioral health field
A new report from the Michigan Health Council shows that Michigan doesn’t have enough opportunities for students to become behavioral health care workers. This is contributing to a shortage of certified school-based mental health professionals across the state, according to the council.
This shortage puts a large workload on the personnel in this field. In the 2023-2024 school year Michigan had about 600 students per school counselor, over a thousand students per school psychologists, and almost 500 students per social worker. The report goes on to share that improving vocational programs could introduce thousands of high school students to fulfilling careers in behavioral health.
Sports updates
NBA
The Detroit Pistons face the Cleveland Cavaliers today at Little Ceasars Arena but—like their game against the Thunder—the opposing team is without their best players, with both Donovan Mitchall out with groin injuries and James Harden questionable with a thumb injury.
The Pistons are playing without their full strength with Isaiah Stweart out again because of his involvement in the fight with the Charlotte Hornets on Feb. 9. This is his sixth game of his seven game suspension.
Tonight’s game tip off is at 7 p.m. with a following away game against the Magic on Sunday, March 1.
NHL
The Red Wings face the Carolina Hurricanes tomorrow Feb. 28 at the Lenovo Center. The Red Wings are currently second in the Atlantic Divison with 34 wins and 19 losses. Game starts at 7 p.m.
Blueberry recall
More than 55,000 pounds of frozen blueberries, some of which were shipped to Michigan, have been recalled because of possible listeria contamination.
The Oregon Potato Company was the distributor of the recalled berries. This shipment was also sent to Oregon, Washington, Wisconsin and Canada.
The FDA recalled it initially on Feb. 12 and classified the recall as a Class 1 recall on Feb. 24, which means there is a reasonable probability that the use of or exposure to a violative product will cause serious adverse health consequences or death.
Go to your local grocery store to see if your purchase of frozen blueberries was in the mix.
Handmaid’s Tale in Detroit
And the dystopian world of the Handmaid’s Tale comes to the Detroit Opera House. The play, once a hit television series and novel, is a chilling look into a future where America’s democracy morphs into a religious tyranny.
There are showings on Sunday March 1, Thursday March 5 and Saturday March 7.
Listen to the latest episode of the “Detroit Evening Report” on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, NPR.org or wherever you get your podcasts.
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President Trump lashed out at the U.S. Supreme Court after it ruled his use of certain tariffs was illegal.
Trump noted he had other options, including blocking all trade with other nations.
“I can destroy the trade. I can destroy the country,” the president said. “I’m even allowed to impose a foreign country-destroying embargo. I can embargo. I can do anything I want. But I can’t charge $1.”
Trump later said he would impose a new global 15% tariff, though it initially began at 10%.
Congress would have to extend the tariff in about five months. The president could potentially get around that provision by announcing a new round of levies at that time.
Many businesses are weighing the impact of the tariff upheaval, including Detroit’s Big 3 automakers.
The head of the trade association MichAuto, Glenn Stevens, Jr., says car companies had anticipated the High Court’s decision.
Listen: SCOTUS tariff ruling extends uncertainty for Detroit automakers
The following interview has been edited for clarity and length.
Glenn Stevens, Jr.: It was pretty much assumed that the justices would rule this way based on some of the preliminary arguments. We also felt that there would be a response from the administration that they might use additional or new tools if the Supreme Court ruled this way. And we have seen the president state that. I think it does reaffirm the power of Congress according to the U.S. Constitution, in the case of this particular act. But it leaves a lot of uncertainty with our industries and in our economy.
Quinn Klinefelter, WDET News: The High Court ruled on the reciprocal tariffs on other countries. But they’re still allowing levies imposed ostensibly to protect national security. The 25% tariffs on imported vehicles and auto parts still stands, except for imports covered under the North American trade deal. So, how do you see the Supreme Court decision affecting the auto industry in particular?
GS: It affects a portion of it. But not by any stretch all of the tariffs and trade deals that have been put in place since Jan. 20 of last year when the America First Trade Policy Act was issued. Yes, the national security tariffs remain in place. The unfair trade practice tariffs remain in place. Those are very tied heavily to China. Those are significant. But anything that did deal with this Emergency Powers Act has been struck down now.
What happens from here, we don’t know. There will be court challenges. The question of whether companies will be able to get a rebate, so to speak, on what they paid, there was no direction from the court on that. So, again, we have a lot of uncertainty moving forward. And then we have a new wild card, which we anticipated, where the president said that he’d use fair trade and anti-dumping subsidy tariffs. And there’s a whole process for that.
QK: And how would that affect the auto industry?
GS: It’s such a complex supply chain. It depends on where the vehicles are assembled. It depends on what is the country of origin where the components come from. For example, a lot of the parts and the components are still exempt on this continent under the current USMCA agreement. But if you’re importing parts from other countries outside of that agreement, it does impact you, the 25% on imported vehicles does apply. So it’s actually quite complex and has been for some time. And this may muddle it up a little bit more.
QK: The trade deal between the US, Mexico, and Canada was coming up for review this year. It’s vital for automakers in particular, considering the cross-pollination of parts and vehicles between the three countries. But with this new Supreme Court decision, do you think the president may have a lot less leverage to push for a new USMCA deal that he would like?
GS: I’m not so sure about the less leverage. What I do know is our organization and many others that are related to the industry, we remain steadfast that we need to get to a renewed and strengthened USMCA agreement. We are stronger together with Canada and Mexico in the current supply chain.
Are modifications and some things needed to be adjusted? Yes. Where that goes, we’re not sure. Discussions are at a bit of a stalemate. But we have quite a bit of runway yet up to July 1st with regards to that.
QK: Canada reached a deal recently with China to sell some Chinese vehicles in that country. The Ford Motor Company has talked about perhaps trying to set up their own deal with Chinese automakers. General Motors has said they did not want that type of a thing. In light of what’s happened with tariffs now, how do you think all that might play out?
GS: Let’s look at the Canada situation first. Prime Minister Carney has a tentative agreement with China to import a small quantity, a very controlled number, of electric vehicles. That was a significant development that has drawn some criticism from the White House. It may complicate things. Again, I underscore that it’s tentative. There are a lot of other things going on with regards to trade and we’re not really certain where this is going right now.
QK: Some automotive analysts have forecast that the impact of tariffs would force car companies to raise prices on new vehicles this year. Now we have this Supreme Court decision. Even if it only affects the auto industry to an extent, as you said, it does not totally rid it of any of the difficulties companies might suffer from having tariffs. So where do you see it going now in terms of potential price increases?
GS: That’s hard to say. It’s probably not going to impact things too directly. At this point, most of the companies have absorbed as much of the increases they can within their supply chains. Affordability of vehicles is an issue. The average in our country is about $50,000 for a new vehicle. That’s a high number. Anyone who sells, distributes, or makes vehicles in this country is very hesitant to raise those prices any further. We have seen some creep.
We’ve seen some certain charges increase, like destination charges on the delivery of a vehicle, and that’s been one way the extra cost has been passed through. But there haven’t been significant increases. Most of the time in any type of consumer product, when prices go up, they don’t tend to come down too quickly. So that’s not good for the consumer.
QK: One of the things you’ve mentioned several times is the uncertainty of the situation. I’ve heard many business executives over the last year or so complain that one of the hardest things about tariffs is the uncertainty they create for people trying to make a business plan. Now we also have this Supreme Court ruling. In your view, is this making it even more uncertain now?
GS: It could, yes. The key words the in last year have been instability and uncertainty. If you apply those two words to just about anything, they’re not good. Especially if you apply them to the automotive industry. It is a long lead time, complex supply chain business that requires stability and certainty to make capital decisions, to look at its workforce, to look at supply chains. We do have new tariffs now. That doesn’t give stability and certainty.
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In her final State of the State address, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer will discuss the next phase of her administration’s agenda, reflecting on progress made over the past seven years and describing what comes next. Her focus will include strengthening employment opportunities, easing financial pressures for residents, maintaining strong support for education and literacy, expanding housing development, and pursuing additional priorities moving forward.
Grocery stores offer colorful produce aisles, where pyramid-shaped mounds of apples, oranges and lemons sit waiting for your inspection.
In that moment, you might wonder — how did the prices on those apples and oranges and lemons come to be? Who decided on that particular number?
Food prices are influenced by many factors. And in recent years, the numbers have been going up.
In 2022, food prices increased by almost 10% — the largest increase since 1979. And while they haven’t increased as much since then, fruits and vegetables are still becoming pricier. Lettuce, for example, is up over 7% since last year. Why? And how much have prices changed because of President Donald Trump’s tariffs and immigration policies?
Bill Loupée is the COO of Ben B. Schwartz & Sons wholesaler, which operates out of Detroit. He spoke with Robyn Vincent. .
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Around Y2K, the mighty American private sector hit a momentous milestone. For the first time on record, frontline managers – supervisors, team leads, foremen, forewomen, etc. – outnumbered back-office managers.
That seemed significant, especially for the working-class folks for whom these noncommissioned-officer-style positions provided a rare path to the upper reaches of the career ladder. As quickly as the milestone was crossed, the trend reversed, according to our analysis of about 37 million responses to the census and American Community Survey from 1950 to 2024.
Once ascendant, supervisory jobs crop up all over our lists of the hardest-hit jobs of Americans’ working lives, even as white-collar management soars to new highs. What happened?
Having been burned by data-collection changes before, our first instinct was to take a long, hard look at how the Census Bureau classifies jobs. Or, more accurately, to spend 15 seconds emailing an extraordinarily talented economist and hoping they’ve already done the work for us.
We were in luck. Utrecht University economist Anna Salomons responded within an hour, even though the hour in question was already a wee one in the Netherlands. For her blockbuster 2024 analysis, Salomons and her collaborators collected and analyzed detailed Census Bureau job descriptions from 1930 to 2018 to figure out how our economy had evolved, mutated and automated.
She first mentioned that the change in occupational definitions around the 2000 Census was “notoriously large” and, like us, wondered if that might cause some of the shift we saw in the numbers.
But two factors argue against that thesis. First, as Salomons suggested, we’re using a system from our friends at IPUMS that carefully adjusts for all those changes in the raw census definitions.
Second, the changes come gradually after the inflection point – if a census definition change was the culprit, you’d expect a sudden swerve. But what if, Salomons suggested, those changes in definition took place outside of the friendly confines of the Census Bureau?
Specifically, she suggested we look at title inflation, which immediately blew the case wide open. Or at least blew it ajar.
It seems quite possible that, over the past few decades, jobs that were once called some variation on “supervisor” were now called some variation on “manager.”
A fancier title (and no change in pay) may, at least temporarily, fool a worker who’d been angling for a raise or promotion. But could it really fool the almighty Census Bureau?
We fear the answer must be “probably.” The American Community Survey’s superpower – that it hears directly from about 2 million U.S. households each year – is also, in this case, its Achilles’ heel. Because it must rely on what those households say.
The census crew does its utmost to elicit clean answers, but even the most carefully designed questions would struggle to distinguish a manager from a “manager.”
The survey asks not just for your occupation but also for your most important work activities or duties. That detail, plus answers to other questions throughout the survey, such as education level, give the clerks at the National Processing Center – and the government robot that handles the easiest cases – as much information as possible when they’re determining which job a respondent really performed.
But not everybody fills out those activities. And not every manager-in-name-only will provide enough information to reclassify them as a supervisor or even as an individual contributor. So, a certain percentage of inflated titles will slip through.
But that would mean census surveys still reflect a real trend toward title inflation. And why are titles inflating? Based on a lifetime of observation, we’d guess some of corporate America’s brightest minds have noticed that a title upgrade allows you to give a worker a “promotion” without a change in responsibility – or in pay.
Particularly crafty economists may even have found a way to measure one narrow instance of this. Salomons points to an analysis forthcoming in the Review of Financial Studies. In it, economists analyzed about 450,000 online job postings with salaries near the cutoff that makes you eligible for management under the Fair Labor Standards Act. (The postings came from 2010 to 2018, when the cutoff was $455 a week. It currently sits at $684.)
The authors – Lauren Cohen at Harvard University, and Umit Gurun and Bugra Ozel at the University of Texas at Dallas – found that jobs paying just above the legal cutoff are about five times more likely to have managerial titles than are similar jobs with pay just below it.
Why? Well, even a dubious title such as calling a barber a “grooming manager” or a front-desk clerk a “director of first impressions” could provide cover for employers looking to claim that person is exempt from overtime pay. The economists estimate such spurious classifications save employers about 13.5 percent on the pay of each “manager.”
To be sure, as Heidi Shierholz, president of the Economic Policy Institute, told us, the definition for overtime-exempt employees says nothing about titles – it’s purely about job function. Faux-promoting a worker to “manager” shouldn’t change anything. But in reality, she said, bosses often use these titles as a smoke screen.
“Titles can still matter a lot in practice,” Ozel said. “A ‘manager’ label can shape expectations about whether overtime is available and can muddy the record for anyone trying to assess the role from the outside. … Job duties are hard to observe and document without access to internal records and day-to-day work.”
But this dynamic, while suggestive, applies only to a narrow slice of the workforce. In any given year, less than a tenth of the workforce earned enough to put them within fudging distance (20 percent) of the cutoff.
What else might drive this title inflation?
Our best clue came in a call from Nicholas Bloom, a Stanford University management expert who longtime readers may recognize is also a remote-work data impresario.
Bloom pointed out the rise of managers coincides with what he calls the overeducation of the American workforce. College graduates once made up a tiny, elite minority. Now, America’s colleges churn out so many that they outnumber the share of young people who never made it past high school.
As a result, Bloom said, there aren’t enough highfalutin’ positions for all those brand-new baccalaureates. Of course, employers would still love to attract these talented young grads to their unfilled lower-falutin’ positions. But to do so, they’d need to get creative.
“How do you get a college graduate to do a job that’s honestly probably better suited to a noncollege graduate?” Bloom asked. “You just shove the word ‘president’ into the title!”
When we took Bloom’s hint and charted the rise in managers by education, the fallout of his observation became clear. The increase in managers with a bachelor’s degree or higher drowns out any other trend. If we explain that segment, we explain the whole thing.
We started by looking at where all those college-educated managers worked.
As we should have guessed, they’re in the industries with the most-educated workers overall. In almost every major industry, as more educated workers roll in, the number of educated managers rises at the same rate.
Let’s look at an appropriate example: the industry of higher education. In that business, a four-year degree (or something fancier) gave you almost a 5 percent chance of being in management in 2000. By 2024, the share of educated workers in that sector had more than doubled, but your chances of being a manager conditional on having a college degree didn’t really change.
Many industries – banking, real estate, hospitals – follow this pattern. The exception? Computer services, which added more jobs than all but a handful of (mostly low-wage) industries over this time period, also saw your odds of becoming a manager double.
That matches what we heard from Ben Hanowell, an anthropologist who now helps direct ADP Research, the research arm of the outfit that probably processes your paycheck each month. The company’s endless piles of proprietary payrolls allow Hanowell to produce metrics that us mere civilians can’t match.
In his analysis, Hanowell found that U.S. teams got slightly smaller after the pandemic – an average manager went from 7.4 direct reports to about 7.3. But over that time, tech firms have gone from 6.5 workers per manager to about 5.3, with much of the drop coming after the pandemic.
So, while there are some situations where individuals became more likely to be managers, the much more common story is: People with college degrees had the same odds of becoming a manager as they always did, so as we got more people with college degrees, we got more managers.
But are these Potemkin promotions, or do they signal a change in the economy?
It hinges on whether the new boss, the “manager,” is truly the same as the old boss, the “supervisor.” We don’t have enough data right now to compare their actual duties, but we can at least look at their pay.
And sure enough, when we compare managers to similarly paid supervisors since the turn of the millennium, a clean pattern pops out. At every step of pay scale, managers rose, and supervisors fell in roughly equal quantities (after accounting for workforce growth over that time). To us, that looks a lot like replacement.
To be sure, they may not all be simple swaps in which a firm hires a college graduate to be a glorified supervisor with a cool title. We could also be seeing centralization. Perhaps work that once fell to supervisors – say, scheduling or coaching – now shifts to a central, college-educated staff of trainers and human resources professionals.
Around the edges, we expect those trends have been exacerbated by the decline of small businesses, since a megacorp in search of efficiency will centralize more functions. Similarly, the rise of outsourcing and perhaps gig work means jobs that were once done by small teams with supervisors inside the company are now handled by huge outside contractors.
And of course the increasing reliance on gig workers and outsourced workers that such a model implies might also help explain why tech’s managers now seem to manage so few employees – many of the folks they’re managing are now working outside the company.
But experts like Shierholz confirmed our hunch that the dominant force seemed to be the simplest: Job titles are getting a college-friendly makeover even if the jobs themselves don’t change much. Cory Stahle, senior economist at Indeed, agreed this seemed plausible based on his impressions from the online job site’s vast archives of job postings.
“We’re seeing a lot of jobs that have manager in them, but they are doing these more direct manager or direct supervising type of jobs,” Stahle said. “They are managers who are more directly involved in the day-to-day operations rather than a higher-up.”
Hiring sign is displayed at a grocery store in Arlington Heights, Ill., Wednesday, Dec. 24, 2025. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)
Last week President Trump threatened to block the Gordie Howe International Bridge from opening. In a rambling post on social media, Trump argued that Canada is treating the U.S. unfairly without making any specific demands.
That’s left politicians on the Michigan and Ontario sides of the new span scrambling. Windsor Mayor Drew Dilkens says he is unaware of any attempts by the Trump Administration to contact Canadian officials over the opening of the Gordie Howe International Bridge.
Listen: Mayor Dilkens discusses U.S. threat to block Gordie Howe Bridge
Dilkens says that while Canada paid to build the span, ownership of the bridge is shared.
“Canada as a federal government and the state of Michigan as a state government jointly own the Gordie Howe Bridge,” says Dilkens. “We’re 50-50 owners and we will repay the cost of construction through the collection of tolls over a period of many years, after which we will split the proceeds of toll revenue moving forward.”
Meeting with Morouns
The Windsor mayor blames the Moroun family for the President’s sudden desire to halt the bridge opening. There are reports of a meeting between the wealthy Ambassador Bridge owner Matthew Moroun and U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick hours before Trump threatened the Gordie Howe Bridge.
“You know I’m not sure what the billionaires are doing behind the scenes,” says Dilkens, “but we’re really interested in the families that are affected by this on both sides of the border.”
The U.S. House Oversight Committee has sent a letter to Lutnick requesting all documents related to his alleged meeting with Matthew Moroun.
Dilkens says retaliating by blocking the Ontario side of the Ambassador Bridge is not something Canada would consider, regardless of the White House’s stance on the Gordie Howe span. The Windsor-Detroit Bridge Authority says the international span remains on track to open early this year.
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Across the country, small businesses in immigrant communities are reporting the same pattern: customers are disappearing, workers aren’t showing up, and revenue is in decline.
Federal immigration enforcement has reshaped daily life in these neighborhoods, and some business owners say it’s hitting them harder than COVID, in part because there’s no PPP loan or government lifeline this time around.
In Los Angeles County, the vast majority of surveyed businesses reported negative impacts, with nearly 50% losing more than half their revenue. In Chicago’s Little Village, business sales have dropped an estimated 50 to 70%. And the Brookings Institution estimates that 2025 may have been the first year in over half a century that net migration to the U.S. went negative.
That same predicament is playing out in metro Detroit. In Southwest Detroit, Dearborn, and Hamtramck, the small businesses that anchor entire neighborhoods are under growing pressure. Business owners along Vernor Highway describe empty storefronts, canceled appointments, and streets that used to bustle with foot traffic now eerily quiet. Community networks — WhatsApp alert groups, volunteer patrols, whistle distribution — have emerged to help residents maintain their daily routines.
Mark Lee is the president and CEO of The Lee Group, a consulting firm that works with small businesses on strategy, marketing, and growth across Southeast Michigan. He joined Robyn Vincent on The Metro to talk about what he’s hearing from owners on the ground.
Listen to the full conversation using the media player above.
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How is the Trump administration doing overall at managing the economy?
There are bright spots: inflation is down, unemployment is low, and the stock market is strong. But there are also concerns: Prices are still high in many areas, there’s been a hiring freeze across a number of industries, and most of the investments energy is are concentrated in artificial intelligence — not spread across a diverse range of sectors.
The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is traditionally pro-free market, pro-business, and conservative leaning — and that’s also true for their partner organizations around the country.
Faye Nemer is the CEO of the Middle East North Africa American Chamber of Commerce, which operates out of Dearborn. She told producer Sam Corey that she generally likes how the Trump administration is managing the economy. She thinks the tariffs are strategic. And while Nemer realizes small businesses are hurting, she thinks that’s likely to change as national policies will trickle down to everyone else.
Listen to The Metro weekdays from 10 a.m. to noon ET on 101.9 FM and streaming on demand.
One-of-a-kind podcasts from WDET bring you engaging conversations, news you need to know and stories you love to hear. Keep the conversations coming. Please make a gift today.
NEW YORK (AP) — It’s been a confusing time for people with student loans. Collections restarted, then were put on hold. At the same time, borrowers had to stay on top of changes to key forgiveness plans.
Last year, the long-contested SAVE plan introduced by the Biden administration ended with a settlement agreement. President Donald Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” introduced new borrowing limits for graduates and raised challenges to the Public Service Loan Forgiveness program. While several changes for student loan borrowers will take effect this summer, other key questions remain unresolved.
More than 5 million Americans were in default on their federal student loans as of September, according to the Education Department. Millions are behind on loan payments and at risk of default this year.
Borrowers “genuinely struggle to afford their loans and then to hear that the administration is making it more expensive and taking away some of the tools and resources that help folks afford their loans is really, it’s panic-inducing,” said Winston Berkman-Breen, legal director at Protect Borrowers.
Last month, the Education Department announced that it would delay involuntary collections for student loan borrowers in default until the department finalizes its new loan repayment plans. The date for this is still unclear.
If you’re a student loan borrower, here are some key things to know:
If you were enrolled in the SAVE plan
The SAVE plan was a repayment plan with some of the most lenient terms ever. Soon after its launch it was challenged in court, leaving millions of student loan borrowers in limbo. Last December, the Education Department announced a settlement agreement to end the SAVE plan. What is next for borrowers who were enrolled in this repayment plan is yet to be determined.
“Seven and a half million borrowers who are currently enrolled in SAVE need to be moved to another plan,” Berkman-Breen said.
As part of the agreement, the Education Department says it will not enroll new borrowers, deny pending applications, and will move all current SAVE borrowers into other repayment plans.
The Education Department is expected to develop a plan for borrowers to transition from the SAVE plan, yet borrowers should be proactive about enrolling in other repayment plans, said Kate Wood, a lending expert at NerdWallet.
If you are looking to enroll in an income-driven repayment plan
Borrowers can apply for the following income-driven plans: the Income-Based Repayment Plan, the Pay as You Earn plan, and the Income-Contingent Repayment plan.
“They all have similar criteria, and they function similarly. Your payment is set as a percentage of your income, not how much you owe, so it’s usually a lower payment,” Berkman-Breen said.
The payment amount under income-driven plans is a percentage of your discretionary income, and the percentage varies depending on the plan. Since many people are looking to switch plans, some applications to income-driven repayment plans might take longer to process, said Jill Desjean, director of policy analysis at the National Association of Student Financial Aid Administrators.
You can find out which repayment plan might work best for you by logging on to the Education Department’s loan simulator.
If you’re working toward your Public Service Loan Forgiveness
There are no changes to the Public Service Loan Forgiveness Program yet. Last year, the Trump administration announced plans to change the eligibility requirements for participating nonprofits.
The policy seeks to disqualify nonprofit workers if their work is deemed to have “substantial illegal purpose.” The Trump administration said it’s necessary to block taxpayer money from lawbreakers, while critics say it turns the program into a tool of political retribution.
The proposal says illegal activity includes the trafficking or “chemical castration” of children, illegal immigration, and supporting foreign terrorist organizations. This move could cut off some teachers, doctors, and other public workers from federal loan cancellation.
“This is something that obviously is very stressful, very nerve-wracking for a lot of people, but given that we don’t know exactly how this is going to be enforced, how these terms are going to be defined, it’s not really something that you can try to plan ahead for now,” Wood said.
While this policy is currently being challenged by 20 Democrat-led states, it’s expected to take effect in July. In the meantime, Wood recommends that borrowers enrolled in the PSLF program continue making payments.
If your student loans are in default
Involuntary collections on federal student loans will remain on hold. The Trump administration announced earlier this month that it is delaying plans to withhold pay from student loan borrowers who default on their payments.
Federal student loan borrowers can have their wages garnished and their federal tax refunds withheld if they default on their loans. Borrowers are considered in default when they are at least 270 days behind on payments.
If your student loans are in default, you can contact your loan holder to apply for a loan rehabilitation program.
“They essentially come up with a payment plan where you’re making a reduced payment,” Woods. “After five successful payments on that rehabilitation plan, wage garnishment will cease.”
If you’re planning to attend graduate school
Trump’s “ Big Beautiful Bill ” has changed the amount graduate students can borrow from federal student loans. Graduate students could previously borrow loans up to the cost of their degree; the new rules cap the amount depending on whether the degree is considered a graduate or a professional program.
Wood said that if you’re starting a new program and taking out a loan after July 1, you will be subject to the new loan limits.
Under the new plan, students in professional programs would be able to borrow up to $50,000 per year and up to $200,000 in total. Other graduate students, such as those pursuing nursing and physical therapy, would be limited to $20,500 a year and up to $100,000 total.
The Education Department is defining the following fields as professional programs: pharmacy, dentistry, veterinary medicine, chiropractic, law, medicine, optometry, osteopathic medicine, podiatry and theology.
If you want to consolidate your loan
The online application for loan consolidation is available at studentaid.gov/loan-consolidation. If you have multiple federal student loans, you can combine them into a single loan with a fixed interest rate and a single monthly payment.
The consolidation process typically takes around 60 days to complete. You can only consolidate your loans once.
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The Associated Press receives support from Charles Schwab Foundation for educational and explanatory reporting to improve financial literacy. The independent foundation is separate from Charles Schwab and Co. Inc. The AP is solely responsible for its journalism.
FILE – In this May 5, 2018, file photo, graduates at the University of Toledo commencement ceremony in Toledo, Ohio. (AP Photo/Carlos Osorio, File)
A new report finds that the rise in requests to build huge data centers across the country could reshape the size and cost of the electric grid in Michigan.
The Union of Concerned Scientists estimates that within five years data centers could require well over half of all the new power demand in the state.
One of the report’s co-authors, Lee Shaver, specifically analyzed the likely impact of data centers on Michigan.
Shaver says the question is not how much new electricity Michigan will need, it’s who will pay for it.
Listen: Will massive data centers create large rate increase for Michigan customers?
The following interview has been edited for clarity.
Lee Shaver: The utilities have what’s called an obligation to serve. So they are going to build enough generation capacity to be able to meet the demand from data centers. The way that the system is supposed to work is that whoever causes that new demand pays for it. But the amount of demand we’re seeing from data centers kind of upsets the way that these things have been done historically. There’s a much higher likelihood that customers other than the data center would end up paying for a portion of those costs.
The big difference is just how much larger the data centers are. As an example, the total size of the data center that DTE Electric was just approved to connect to their grid in Saline Township would be 1.4 gigawatts, which is equivalent to the energy demand of over a million homes.
If could take decades for a million people to move into a new city. It’s slow growth that the utility can plan for over a long timeframe. Those costs can be spread out very easily. But when you’ve got a million homes showing up in a community in less than two years, that’s a massive amount of growth. There’s tons of new infrastructure that has to be built. And the regulation just can’t accommodate that level of growth without the way that those costs are covered being distorted.
Quinn Klinefelter, WDET News: The Michigan Public Service Commission says the agreement between the data center and DTE includes strong protections against a big rate increase for customers. I’ve also heard that some utilities require owners of data centers to pay what’s called a “large load tariff.” Just what is that?
LS: The word tariff is a bit misleading, especially since tariffs have been in the news so much. But when a utility talks about a large load tariff, they’re talking about a set of terms and conditions that data centers have to agree to in order to be provided with electric service.
And there are a lot of really good and positive things in those tariffs that utilities are proposing, like minimum contract terms, minimum monthly billing amounts. The challenge is that, especially in Michigan, especially with the DTE data center that was just approved, there’s just not enough detail that has been made public from these large load tariffs and from the applications that the data centers themselves are submitting for the public to have assurance that the costs are actually going to be covered.
QK: Is there a point where you finally find that out one way or the other? Does it have to be when the centers are operating or can it be determined while they’re constructed?
LS: There’s several points in the process at which that needs to be done. Obviously the large load tariff needs to be in place when that contract between the data center and the utility is signed. There has to be transparency. A lot of that information, though not all of it, should be public so that it can be reviewed. And there should be regular reporting on at least an annual basis. The utility and the data center should be providing information back to the regulators to say, here’s how much energy was provided, here’s how much it cost, here’s how it was paid for. And at the same time, look at how the billing of other customers changed over that same time period.
QK: Does it take until the things are actually up and going before you can really find that out? Or can you tell that during the construction process?
LS: You need both pieces. You’re not going to get assurance that it happened properly until after things are up and running. But if you don’t have a good framework in place at the beginning to collect and share that data, you would never get any reassurance that it’s been done properly.
QK: Beyond purely financial considerations, I’ve heard some concerns about the possible health or other costs that could be associated with these massive data centers. In your view, is it reasonable to be worried about some of those effects?
LS: Absolutely. What we know today is that any new data centers coming in the near term are going to result in more fossil fuels being burned to provide them with power. And when we burn fossil fuels, there’s emissions of heat trapping carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, sulfur dioxide and other pollutants that have measurable health impacts. Our report found that due to data centers being built over the next 5-10 years, there’s close to $20 billion worth of health damages that would be caused from air pollution, most of which would happen directly in Michigan. And the global climate damages are estimated to be over $400 billion across the 2026-2050 timeframe.
QK: Having analyzed the issue, what, in your view, is the best strategy for a state like Michigan to follow in regards to where or how many data centers are allowed in?
LS: We didn’t speak to whether or not specific data centers should be allowed to operate, but we do make a couple of recommendations from the policy side.
In addition to the steps that need to be taken to ensure that data centers pay for their own costs, we also recommend what we’re calling a CO2 reduction policy. We found that’s necessary because, while Michigan does have some really progressive clean energy and renewable energy standards, with the growth in data centers, those standards are not enough to continue Michigan on the path to reaching net zero carbon emissions. A CO2 reduction policy would essentially set a limit on how much fossil fuel can be burned in the state of Michigan. And by enacting that limit, over time combustion of fossil fuels will be reduced and all of those negative health impacts would diminish.
QK: Considering the current makeup of Congress and the White House, in your view, how realistic is it that such prohibitions could actually get through?
LS: Our recommendation is actually at the state level, for exactly that reason. And our modeling shows that regardless of policies elsewhere, if Michigan were to enact a CO2 reduction policy, it would have significant impacts on reducing emissions in Michigan.
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Small businesses are often described as the backbone of the economy. But in moments of stress, they can also be an early warning system.
In metro Detroit, inflation has slowed — consumer prices in the Detroit area rose about two percent over the past year, but that has not translated into relief for many households or business owners. Spending remains cautious, and many small business owners say they are no longer planning for growth. Instead, they are focused on endurance.
One pressure point keeps coming up in conversations with owners: health care. Small-business health insurance plans in Michigan are set to rise again in 2026, while tens of thousands fewer Michiganders are enrolling in individual marketplace coverage this year as premiums increase and federal assistance shrinks.
The result is a heavy load for small businesses. They are helping families stay afloat, providing places for connection and routine in neighborhoods, and absorbing rising costs that often land directly on owners.
In this conversation, The Metro’s Robyn Vincent examines how small businesses have become survival engines, community anchors, and stress points all at once — and what that means for workers, customers, and neighborhoods across metro Detroit.
Our guest is Mark Lee, president of the LEE Group, a consulting firm that works with small businesses on strategy, marketing, and growth. Lee also teaches business at Michigan universities and regularly speaks with owners across southeast Michigan about the challenges they’re facing.
Listen to The Metro weekdays from 10 a.m. to noon ET on 101.9 FM and streaming on demand.
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There are weeks when the news feels like weather; something that happens over there, something you brace for and then move through.
And then there are times when it lands in your body.
In the last few weeks, vigils have spread across the country after a federal immigration officer killed Renee Good. People are mourning, but they’re also organizing — and not just with signs and speeches. Some are choosing disruption. Some are choosing civil disobedience. They’re asking a blunt question: if systems can take a life in broad daylight and then argue about vocabulary, what exactly are we supposed to do with our grief?
Detroiters know what it means to be extracted from, written off, and still survive. And that makes these stories feel like different chapters of the same book— a book about power, and whose lives it’s allowed to break.
To help us read that book more clearly, Robyn Vincent spoke with Saqib Bhatti of the Action Center on Race and the Economy. His work traces the money behind public pain, and it asks what happens when communities confront the power brokers who, he says, are facilitating that pain.
Listen to The Metro weekdays from 10 a.m. to noon ET on 101.9 FM and streaming on demand.
WDET strives to cover what’s happening in your community. As a public media institution, we maintain our ability to explore the music and culture of our region through independent support from readers like you. If you value WDET as your source of news, music and conversation, please make a gift today.
Lansing — Several of Michigan’s public university leaders gathered last week to reveal the results of a study analyzing the positive economic impact their institutions have on the state, generating $45 billion annually.
As public scrutiny of higher education and its mission has grown over the last five years, the speakers, including Michigan State University President Kevin Guskiewicz and Grand Valley State University President Philomena Mantella, explained on Tuesday how Michigan’s public schools are continuing to improve the lives of all Michigan residents.
It’s been 10 years since the last report on the economic impact of Michigan’s universities, said Britany Affolter-Caine, executive director of Research Universities for Michigan, an organization of the four Michigan research universities.
The report, done by the East Lansing-based Anderson Economic Group, shows that Michigan’s public universities contributed $45 billion in net new economic activity through operations, student spending and alumni earnings for the state. The report pointed out that this revenue was more than 28 times the amount given in state appropriations for the 15 universities.
“This is economic impact that would not exist in Michigan if these institutions were not here,” said Dan Hurley, CEO of the Michigan Association for State Universities.
However, about 70% of Americans now say higher education is going in the wrong direction, a poll by Pew Research released in October showed, up from 56% in 2020.
Guskiewicz and Mantella agreed that the public perception of higher education is something they’re trying to repair. Graduates coming out of college with jobs in their field, more affordable tuitions so students have less debt and showing the impact of universities in local communities are all ways the institutions can rebuild public trust, the speakers said.
Perception of higher education
Americans were losing confidence in higher education because they believe it’s too expensive, doesn’t provide the skills needed for today’s jobs and is “indoctrinating” students, Guskiewicz said.
The misinformation regarding the value of a degree conflicts with the real data that shows, Guskiewicz said, the social upward mobility and the opportunity that come with a degree, along with the improvements to quality of life in all sectors that touch a university.
“We have to do a better job of telling our story, just like we are today,” Guskiewicz said.
But negative perceptions of higher education held by lawmakers, federally and statewide, can hurt a university’s finances. In the past year, President Donald Trump’s administration has cut millions of dollars from Michigan universities, according to Treasury Department data compiled by the Center for American Progress, a liberal group.
Michigan House Republicans toyed with the idea of cutting $291 million from the University of Michigan’s and MSU’s state appropriations to redistribute among the other state universities. This was rejected by the Democratic-led Senate and Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, and all universities saw an increase in their state appropriations in the budget approved in October.
File photo from the campus of Central Michigan University. (Stephen Frye / MediaNews Group)
“That was an effort by one caucus in one chamber, which is a pretty distinct minority in the entire public body that ultimately is responsible for passing the state budget,” Hurley said. “All of our universities need to have reinvigorated state investment. … We are thankful for what the Legislature has done in recent years. … But we are conservatively at least 41st out of 50 in this country as it involves per student state support for public universities.”
The worth of a degree
Pew’s poll showed that about 80% of adult respondents said colleges and universities aren’t doing enough to keep tuition affordable, and about half said higher education wasn’t doing enough to prepare students for well-paying jobs.
The speakers acknowledged the longstanding problem of graduates struggling to find employment in their degree’s field, or any meaningful employment at all.
“This is not a new challenge,” Affolter-Caine said. “It happens to maybe be exacerbated in the current cycle.”
However, the report shows that graduates from Michigan universities make double what high school degree holders earn and, on average, about $20,000 more than what graduates from out-of-state public institutions make.
On average, the report said, Michigan university alumni ages 25-24 earn $91,073 yearly.
Mantella said Grand Valley, like other universities, has embraced and strengthened “experience-based learning.” This includes ensuring all students have access to an internship, project-based learning or other professional workforce experience while still in college.
“This is not only an opportunity to accelerate to the workforce,” Mantella said. “It’s so (students) come into the workforce at the appropriate levels, in the appropriate roles. … It also links the individual to a Michigan employer, so there’s a higher probability that they will, in fact, stay in the state and contribute to the state rather than go somewhere else.”
Hurley said about 84% of the top 50 most in-demand jobs over the next few years will require at least a bachelor’s degree.
“(Those jobs) are our state’s economy, our private sector, our non-private sector, our health care sector speaking,” Hurley said. “And so for us to be competitive in the future, we have to continue generating that talent. And of course, it’s the role of the state government to make sure that college remains affordable.”
File. University of Michigan campus. (Stephen Frye / MediaNews Group)
How does a global community provide for the needs of its citizens without destroying the planet? That’s the crux of “Anthropause: The Beauty of Degrowth,” a new book out this month.
In the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic, society shut down for a few months. As humans stayed inside, animals returned to their old habitats and pollution eased as industry slowed.
Stan Cox, author of “Anthropause: The Beauty of Degrowth”
Retired researcher—and new metro Detroit resident—Stan Cox looks at how that “anthropause” could be a preview of the necessary societal changes to save lives and the planet.
He spoke with All Things Considered – Detroit host Russ McNamara last month. Click on the media player to listen or read selected transcripts below.
Listen: New book examines equitable degrowth as necessary to combat climate change
Russ McNamara, WDET: Why did you write this book?
Stan Cox, Author: The main point I’m making in the book is imagining that we as a society, if we were to rapidly phase out fossil fuels and get by just on the energy that could be generated other ways; and if we stopped plundering the earth for minerals and cutting down forest and causing ecological damage; and we had less energy and materials, and had to allocate them carefully: people know that’s going to mean sacrifice. What am I going to have to give up and so forth?
And what I’m saying in the book is okay, yeah, there are certain things, obviously that will have to be given up. But let’s consider all of the dangers and nuisances, terrible stuff that we put up with an advanced industrial society that has all this energy and materials running through it.
We would be saying goodbye to a lot of those harms and ills by simply not doing a lot of the stuff that requires so much energy input. So the rest of the book, then, is going through specific technologies and activities and so forth that are really harmful to people and the environment, of course, that we would not have the fuel to undertake them, or we would be using resources for meeting people’s basic needs, and we wouldn’t be spending a lot of energy on these other things.
RM: You discuss this and I’m reminded of data centers to run artificial intelligence. People certainly don’t seem to want them and definitely don’t want these in their backyard because there is this concern about the high cost of electricity, and the amount of groundwater that is needed.
SC: That’s absolutely right. One of the big reasons these communities don’t want them is that they create this horrific noise at very high decibel levels and low low frequency noise, which is especially dangerous to human health. When I started writing the book, there wasn’t as much being said about A.I. and the data centers at that time, so I did eventually incorporated them, but the beginning of the second chapter is about noise pollution and and I just used it. It’s seemingly a very small thing, but it really brings out other issues. The leaf blower, especially the gas powered leaf blower, also produces this low frequency and very high volume sound—about eight times the decibel level that the World Health Organization says is safe – and they’re producing a wind about the speed of an EF five tornado. The low frequency sound can travel like three football fields. It’s still above the safe limit.
RM: So what are the societal impacts? Let’s say we start degrowth right now. What are the benefits?
SC: We can’t go on like we’re on the trajectory that we’re on now, because. A degrowth is going to happen. Either a chaotic, brutal degrowth where it’s a Mad Max kind of future, because we’ve tried to force growth to continue and have destroyed ecosystems
Or we can have a planned, rational degrowth that ensures that there’s enough for everybody and that we’re not causing ecological collapse. But there’s no way that growth can continue at this rate.
Sometime in the past three years, we passed a milestone. The quantity of human made stuff—that is everything that human society has manufactured or built or produced—if you weigh all of it up, the mass of all of that exceeds the total mass of all living things on Earth, all plants, animals, microbes, et cetera, and that quantity of stuff being produced is is doubling every 20 years. And clearly that can’t go on.
Herb Stein, an economist from the 70s or 80s was kind of the Yogi Berra of economists. He had a line: “if something can’t go on forever, it won’t” and that’s where growth cannot go on forever. So we have to pull back, create what I called in the book an “anthropause” of our own, and try to have a rational, safe and just reduction in the amount of economic activity for the good of everybody.
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Artificial intelligence is already shaping daily life, whether we’re ready or not. That’s caused celebration and concern.
It’s reducing the work we do, helping us find answers more quickly, and some research suggests it has strong capabilities to diagnose illness, perhaps better than doctors.
Some of these concerns are the context for opposition to data centers. Those spaces house and advance artificial intelligence, and many don’t want them in their backyards.
In Monroe and Kalamazoo Counties, there’s been pushback, which has might permanently delay the creation of data centers there. In Saline, many are unhappy about a center planned for the area.
All of this is happening after Wayne State officially opened its own AI research center in October.
Ezemenari Obasi is the Vice President for Research & Innovation at Wayne State University and heads the university’s Institute for AI and Data Science.
The Metro‘s Sam Corey spoke with him about why he believes AI can help us solve some of our biggest problems.
Listen to The Metro weekdays from 10 a.m. to noon ET on 101.9 FM and streaming on demand.
WDET strives to make our journalism accessible to everyone. As a public media institution, we maintain our journalistic integrity through independent support from readers like you. If you value WDET as your source of news, music and conversation, please make a gift today.
The Trump administration recently announced $12 billion in bailout money in an effort to prop up the farming industry. That comes as farmers around the country have complained about trade wars and general economic conditions making it tough for them to do business.
What that money looks like by the time it makes its way to local farmers remains to be seen. Michigan Farmers Union president, Bob Thompson, says there are still questions surrounding the distribution.
Listen: Bob Thompson discusses issues facing Michigan farmers
“The Administration,” says Thompson, “still has to decide how much money is going to corn, versus wheat, versus soy beans, versus 15 different row crops.”
Thompson says about $11 billion of the $12 billion in the bailout will be dedicated to row crops. That means farmers growing specialty crops, like apples and cherries, will share the remaining funds.
Thompson warns the funding may not be enough to offset the challenges facing Michigan’s farms.
“The financial problems that a lot of farmers, particularly our smaller family farmers are experiencing, is a direct result of a lot of policies of the new administration,” Thompson explains, “ Particularly the tariff policies.”
He says the Trump administration’s crackdown on immigration has also hurt farmers in the state. About three-quarters of the seasonal workforce on farms comes from immigrant labor programs.
The Michigan Farmers Union says it may take a new long-term farm bill to stabilize the industry.
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Tariffs have pushed up the cost of some goods. Unemployment has ticked up slightly. Hiring practices are shifting as artificial intelligence tools like ChatGPT become more prevalent in workplaces.
Those changes raise big questions for the state’s more than 900,000 small businesses — and the workers who depend on them. How are owners adapting to rising costs and new technologies? What does this moment feel like on the ground? And what should people be doing now to stay resilient?
To explore those questions, Mark Lee, founder of The Lee Group, sat down with The Metro’s Robyn Vincent. Lee hosts several talk shows and writes about business and the economy for Crain’s Detroit, with a focus on how national trends play out locally.
Listen to The Metro weekdays from 10 a.m. to noon ET on 101.9 FM and streaming on demand.
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NEW YORK (AP) — The shopping rush leading up to Christmas is over and in its place, like every year, another has begun as millions of people hunt for post-holiday deals and get in line to return gifts that didn’t fit, or didn’t hit quite right.
Holiday spending using cash or cards through Sunday has topped last year’s haul, according to data released this week by Visa’s Consulting & Analytics division and Mastercard SpendingPulse.
But growing unease over the U.S. economy and higher prices in part due to President Donald Trump’s tariffs have altered the behavior of some Americans. More are hitting thrift stores or other discounters in place of malls, according to data from Placer.ai. The firm tracks people’s movements based on cellphone usage.
And they’re sticking more closely to shopping lists and doing more research before buying. That may explain why returns so far are down compared with last year, according to data from Adobe Analytics.
Here are three trends that defined the holiday shopping season so far:
A weaker holiday season for traditional gift giving
Americans are still spending on gifts, yet increasingly that shopping is taking place at thrift and discount stores, according to data from Placer.ai.
That’s likely forcing traditional retailers such as department stores to fight harder for customers, Placer.ai said.
Clothing and electronics that traditionally dominate holiday sales did have a surge but struggled to grow, according to Placer.ai. Both goods are dominated by imports and thus, vulnerable to tariffs.
For example, traffic doubled in department stores during the week before Christmas, from Dec. 15 through Sunday, compared with the average shopping week this year. But traffic in the week before Christmas this year fell 13.2% compared with 2024.
Traffic surged 61% at traditional sellers of only clothing in the week before the holiday compared with the rest of the year. But again, compared with the runup to Christmas last year, sales slid 9%.
Some of that lost traffic may have migrated to the so-called off-price stores— chains like TJ Maxx. That sector had a sharp seasonal traffic bump of 85.1% and a gain of 1.2% in the week before the holiday.
But it was thrift stores that were red hot, with traffic jumping nearly 11% in the week before Christmas compared with last year.
“Whether hunting for a designer deal or uncovering a one-of-a-kind vintage piece, consumers increasingly favored discovery-driven experiences over the standardized assortments of traditional retail,” Shira Petrack, head of content at Placer.ai, said in a blog post Friday.
Thrift stores broaden their appeal
In the past it may have seemed gauche to gift your mother a gently used sweater or a pair of pants from a local thrift store, but seemingly not so amid all of the economic uncertainty and rising prices, according to Placer.ai.
Through the second half of 2025, thrift stores have seen at least a 10% increases in traffic compared with last year. That suggests that environmental concerns as well as economic issues are luring more Americans to second-hand stores, Placer.ai said. Visits to thrift stores generally do not take off during the holidays, yet in the most recent Black Friday weekend, sales jumped 5.5%, Placer.ai. reported.
In November, as customer traffic in traditional apparel stores fell more than 3%, traffic in thrift stores soared 12.7%, according to Placer.ai.
The thrift migration has altered the demographics of second-hand stores. The average household income of thrift customers hit $75,000 during October and November of this year, a slight uptick from $74,900 last year, $74,600 in 2023 well above the average income of 74,100 in 2022, based on demographic data from STI:PopStats combined with Placer.ai data.
U.S. sales at thrift chain Savers Value Village’s rose 10.5% in the three months ended Sept. 27 and the momentum continued through October, store executives said in late October.
“High household income cohort continues to become a larger portion of our consumer mix,” CEO Mark Walsh told analysts. “It’s trade down for sure, and our younger cohort also continues to grow in numbers. ”
Fewer returns, so far
For the first six weeks of the holiday season, return rates have dipped from the same period a year ago, according to Adobe Analytics.
That suggests that shoppers are doing more research before adding something to their shopping list, and they’re being more disciplined in sticking to the lists they create, according to Vivek Pandya, lead analyst at Adobe Digital Insights.
“I think it’s very indicative of consumers and how conscientiously they’ve purchased,” Pandya said. “Many of them are being very specific with how they spend their budget.”
From Nov. 1 to Dec. 12, returns fell 2.5% compared with last year, Adobe reported. In the seven days following Cyber Week — the five shopping days between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday, returns fell 0.1%.
From the Nov. 1 through Dec. 12, online sales rose 6% to $187.3 billion, on track to surpass its outlook for the season, Adobe reported.
Between Dec. 26 to Dec. 31, returns are expected to rise by 25% to 35% compared with returns between Nov. 1 through Dec. 12, Adobe said, and it expects returns to remain elevated through the first two weeks of January, up 8% to 15%.
This is the first year that Adobe has tracked returns.
Still, the last week of December sees the greatest concentration of returns: one out of every eight returns in the 2024 holiday season took place between Dec. 26 and Dec 31, a trend expected to persist this year, Adobe said.
Post-holiday shoppers pass a Christmas tree and festive display at Calef’s Country Store, Friday, Dec. 26, 2025, in Barrington, N.H. (AP Photo/Charles Krupa)