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Analyst: Trump tariffs mean recession is likely for Michigan, Ontario

4 April 2025 at 16:13

Stock markets worldwide are careening even lower Friday after China matched President Donald Trump’s big raise in tariffs in an escalating trade war.

Not even a better-than-expected report on the U.S. job market, which is usually the economic highlight of each month, was enough to stop the slide.

Trump’s 25% tariff on imported vehicles — which the administration says will help foster domestic manufacturing — is likely to both drive up auto prices and force automakers that rely on global supply chains to rethink what and where vehicles are being made.

Stellantis has already laid off 900 workers at plants in Michigan and Indiana after pausing production at some of its assembly plants in Mexico and Canada.

Patrick Anderson, CEO of East Lansing-based Anderson Economic Group, told WDET that he thinks Trump’s tariffs will cause Michigan’s economy to tank. 

“For the lowest tariff cost vehicles we expect prices to go up somewhere between $2,500 and $5,000 per car,” Anderson said. “For a lot of mid-priced cars (it will go up) $5,000, $8,000, $10,000.”

Anderson said Michigan’s close ties to the auto industry are a good thing. However, it also makes us more vulnerable to recessions.

“Also, in this case, (more vulnerable to) a huge U-turn in terms of trade policy,” he added. “(Now) that’s being undertaken by the Trump administration, which has very negative effects on our ability to build cars and sell cars here in Michigan and in other states.”

As long as the tariffs are in place, he says it’s not likely to get better.

“I don’t see any upside to higher tariffs for states like Michigan any time in the next…year,” Anderson said. “You might get some production to move to some plants, but you’re already seeing — and this is just in days — reductions in employment.”

The cratering stock market — in addition to the tariffs — feeds into itself and makes things even worse.

“You’re seeing a huge toll on people’s retirement savings that affects whether or not they’re going to buy cars,” Anderson said.

And if higher prices lead to a drop in sales and manufacturing, the state and region will drop into an avoidable collapse, he said.

“Because you can’t take this much of a, really a baseball bat to auto sales, if that’s your leading industry, and not expect there to be employment losses.”

Auto companies are also navigating the reversal of fuel economy standards, dialed down greenhouse gas emission standards and a host of electric vehicle policy rollbacks.

Associated Press writers Stan Choe, Alexa St. John and Paul Wiseman contributed to this report.

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Trump tariffs on Canada lumber could chop US wood supplies

31 March 2025 at 21:40

President Trump is threatening to raise tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber to 27 percent as soon as this week.

The move could impact everything in the U.S. from lumber needed to build affordable housing to wood chips used to make toilet paper.

Trump says his administration would compensate by harvesting more trees from national forests, which includes several in Michigan.

But some experts say it’s not that simple.

The Michigan Sustainable Forestry Initiative’s Jesse Randall says the issue goes beyond how many trees are available in the state or the nation.

Listen: Trump tariffs on Canada lumber could chop U.S. wood supplies

Jesse Randall: Michigan sits kind of at the forefront of very high-valued timber. And we utilize it in a sustainable manner. I think the material that the president is looking at in terms of tariffs is really going to affect our partners in the Pacific Northwest and down South. I know of one Michigan producer who says they haven’t seen any major uptick because of these proposed tariffs yet.

I think tariffs are a double-edged sword. Our mills and our operators are constantly needing to procure and maintain equipment. So I think that will cost them more money, tariffs or anything that will shut down a supply coming in that is used for construction.

We’re really facing now the start of that spring building period. I think that will add extra pressure to it. And I think you might see, at least initially, some speculative up-buying where people are trying to lock in what they’re going to need for the near term, not knowing what the tariffs will do or if they will be in place for very long.

Some of these larger companies are diversified across the border. I do know that some shipments were held up, they cost a little bit more to get into the country. I believe that’s going to be a blip on the radar and it’ll work itself out.

Quinn Klinefelter, WDET News: Why do you think it’ll be just a blip on the radar?

JR: I think our U.S. mills have already begun to adjust to the possibility. I think they’ve already started to look at their procurement side of the equation and say, “If tariffs do come in and we get raw material from across the border, where will we have to source that from instead? Who are our major players on the procurement side?” I think what the proposed tariff has done is really sped up those conversations inside U.S. producers. “Who are we going to have new contracts with? How flexible are those contracts to ramp up?”

Frankly, right now, I see us having a bigger problem than running out of material. We’re going to run out of Qualified Logging Professionals (QLPs) to harvest the material. Within this country, we have an aging demographic in the forest products industry. Not a lot of folks are going into that profession. It’s a lot like agriculture, it’s getting older and they’re becoming more mechanized. But there’s still a level of retirement that is not being replaced with new logging professionals.

What’s scary to me is if these mills immediately call for more material coming from our woods, which we do have in Michigan, they won’t have people to harvest that wood, they won’t have people to haul that wood. That’s what we’re faced with.

We have 1,000 QLPs. That’s not enough to meet the demand that these mills would have if they ran wide open seven days a week. They don’t have the manpower.

QK: One of the things the Trump administration argues in favor of tariffs is that they will cause production to be based more in the U.S. Are you concerned primarily that there is just not enough qualified professionals here at the moment in the lumber business? Or are there other factors you worry about, if it was going to be mainly a U.S.-based timber industry, as opposed to using lumber from Canada?

JR: The cost of entry into this. The equipment is incredibly expensive. Interest rates have risen to the point where the machinery has gotten out of direct reach for a lot of new people to get into. It’s a lot like agriculture. I would have loved as a young adult to have gotten into either forestry or agriculture. But you need to almost be born into an agricultural family that has an established business to be your own producer. It’s very hard for a new person to break in and pay for this equipment and make go of it.

Now, if there’s increased demand and there’s a lack of QLPs, supply and demand laws tell us that the price per unit goes up. Perhaps that will attract more new people to go out and get the loans to begin to start their own businesses.

But there’s another factor. We’ve also had a lot of natural disasters natiowide. And our Michigan QLPs and our trucking professionals are sought-after talent when natural disasters strike. We have a lot of QLPs and haulers that have been put under contract to go and respond to the storms down South and out in the central U.S.

QK: To get rid of fallen trees and the like?

JR: Correct. We saw a lot of that in North Carolina. And our QLPs had gotten these federal contracts to go out and really help those individual states after hurricanes and tornadoes. That all has to be cleaned up by somebody that knows what they’re doing, that has the right equipment. And those contracts aren’t one or two months. Those contracts are six to nine months. That effectively takes them out of Michigan for the better part of the harvest year. You don’t replace that equipment and that level of knowledge overnight. I can’t take a young person who is fresh out of high school or college and put them on a machine and have them be safe and productive. It takes years to develop those skills. And, right now, we have a loss of talent.

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Donate today »

The post Trump tariffs on Canada lumber could chop US wood supplies appeared first on WDET 101.9 FM.

The Metro: How will Trump’s trade war affect gas, electricity costs?

By: Sam Corey
11 March 2025 at 22:14

Subscribe to The Metro on Apple PodcastsSpotifyNPR.org or wherever you get your podcasts.

Gas and electricity just seem to be getting more and more expensive, and they could keep going up because of President Donald Trump’s on-again, off-again tariffs. 

Last month, Trump announced 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico. Then he raised tariffs on China. He then excused tariffs on U.S. automakers, plus some other Canadian and Mexican goods.

But that’s not the end of the story, because our trading partners are still retaliating. China announced retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agriculture exports that will hurt farmers in Michigan.

Ontario Premier Doug Ford also announced that the province will charge 25% more for its electricity, which 1.5 million Americans use, including here in Michigan.

Dan Scripps, chair of the Michigan Public Service Commission — which regulates utilities including gas and electricity — joined The Metro on Tuesday to help us understand how much gas and electricity prices might increase as a result of the tariffs. 

Listen to The Metro weekdays from 10 a.m. to noon ET on 101.9 FM and streaming on-demand.

Trusted, accurate, up-to-date.

WDET strives to make our journalism accessible to everyone. As a public media institution, we maintain our journalistic integrity through independent support from readers like you. If you value WDET as your source of news, music and conversation, please make a gift today. Donate today »

The post The Metro: How will Trump’s trade war affect gas, electricity costs? appeared first on WDET 101.9 FM.

Detroit Evening Report: Trump grants US automakers one-month exemption from tariffs on Canada, Mexico imports

5 March 2025 at 21:42

President Donald Trump has paused auto tariffs on vehicles imported from Canada and Mexico for one month.

Subscribe to the Detroit Evening Report on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, NPR.org or wherever you get your podcasts.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt made the announcement Wednesday afternoon.

“We spoke with the Big Three auto dealers. We are going to give a one-month extension on any autos coming through [the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement],” she said. “Reciprocal tariffs will still go into effect on April 2, but at the request of the companies associated with USMCA, the president is giving them an exemption for one month, so they are not at an economic disadvantage.” 

Trump spoke with representatives of General Motors, Ford and Stellantis this week. He imposed 25% tariffs Tuesday on imports from Canada and Mexico, including vehicles. 

Those taxes would have eventually raised car and truck prices for Americans by thousands of dollars. 

Other headlines for Wednesday, March 5, 2025:

  • Detroit officials will present $300,000 in grants Wednesday night for legacy businesses in the city as part of a new initiative to support small businesses, called the Detroit Legacy Business Project.
  • Lafayette Coney Island has reopened after passing inspection by the City of Detroit. The legendary downtown Detroit restaurant had been closed since late January because of health code violations.
  • The exterior of the new Hudson’s Detroit building has been completed after builders say the last external panel of glass was installed Tuesday.
  • Gas prices in Detroit are under $3 per gallon for the first time in a while, according to AAA Michigan. Analysts say lower crude oil prices have contributed to the trend, but gas prices could rise in coming weeks because of tariffs on imports from Canada. 

Do you have a community story we should tell? Let us know in an email at detroiteveningreport@wdet.org.

Trusted, accurate, up-to-date.

WDET strives to make our journalism accessible to everyone. As a public media institution, we maintain our journalistic integrity through independent support from readers like you. If you value WDET as your source of news, music and conversation, please make a gift today. Donate today »

The post Detroit Evening Report: Trump grants US automakers one-month exemption from tariffs on Canada, Mexico imports appeared first on WDET 101.9 FM.

New Michigan GOP Chair hopes to unify party

28 February 2025 at 17:28

The two major political parties held their conventions last weekend. On the Democratic side, former state Senator Curtis Hertel will lead the Michigan Democratic Party. He ran unopposed.

The Republican side was a bit more contentious. Former Michigan GOP Co-Chair Meshawn Maddock had gotten the coveted Donald Trump endorsement, but after a couple rounds of voting, it was current state Senator Jim Runestad (R-White Lake) that got the nod for chair.

Runestad has been in the Michigan Legislature since 2015. Before that, the White Lake resident was on the Oakland County Commission.

He tells WDET there’s still some work to be done building bridges between the various factions of the GOP.

“This internal fighting is not helpful to the ultimate goal that we’re all here, and that is winning elections for Republicans,” Runestad says.

2024 started with Kristina Karamo the MIGOP chair, but her abrasive style saw donors bail. An insurrection within the party followed and former Congressman Peter Hoekstra took over. Last year’s elections saw Republicans win back the state House, pick up a Congressional seat and Donald Trump win Michigan.

For that, Hoesktra was rewarded with an Ambassadorship to Canada by Trump.

With 25 percent tariffs on Canadian goods set to go into effect on Tuesday, relations between the two countries are at a low point. Trump has complained that Canada isn’t doing enough to stop Fentanyl from coming into the U.S.

Runestad believes the potential economic havoc on the state’s economy is worth it.

“What we’re asking [Canadian Prime Minister Justin] Trudeau is simply stop bringing over Fentanyl, stop bringing over criminal cartels, stop bringing over people that should not be here to obey our laws,” Runestad says. “Why would you not do that?”

Last year, U.S. Customs agents seized 43 pounds of Fentanyl at the Canadian border. Most drugs are brought across the border by Americans at lawful ports of entry.

2026 is going to be a wide open election cycle — with Governor, Attorney General, Secretary of State and the state Legislature all up for grabs. That’s on top of a federal midterm election and an open U.S. Senate seat in Michigan.

Typically, the party in power in Washington D.C. loses control of the U.S. House during midterms.

In Michigan, Runestad is hoping to buck that trend by following a different pattern.

“It is almost completely consistent that after eight years of one party, they want a different party in the Governor’s Mansion,” Runestad says. “I mean, it almost every time goes eight years Democrat, eight years Republican.”

Like Governor Gretchen Whitmer, Sen. Runestad is term limited. Big wins for Republicans in 2026 means Runestad likely won’t have to worry about leading his side gig of leading the MIGOP.

Hear the full conversation with Sen. Runestad using the audio player above.

Trusted, accurate, up-to-date.

WDET strives to make our journalism accessible to everyone. As a public media institution, we maintain our journalistic integrity through independent support from readers like you. If you value WDET as your source of news, music and conversation, please make a gift today.

Donate today »

The post New Michigan GOP Chair hopes to unify party appeared first on WDET 101.9 FM.

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