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Yesterday — 6 April 2025Main stream

Analyst: Trump tariffs mean recession is likely for Michigan, Ontario

4 April 2025 at 16:13

Stock markets worldwide are careening even lower Friday after China matched President Donald Trump’s big raise in tariffs in an escalating trade war.

Not even a better-than-expected report on the U.S. job market, which is usually the economic highlight of each month, was enough to stop the slide.

Trump’s 25% tariff on imported vehicles — which the administration says will help foster domestic manufacturing — is likely to both drive up auto prices and force automakers that rely on global supply chains to rethink what and where vehicles are being made.

Stellantis has already laid off 900 workers at plants in Michigan and Indiana after pausing production at some of its assembly plants in Mexico and Canada.

Patrick Anderson, CEO of East Lansing-based Anderson Economic Group, told WDET that he thinks Trump’s tariffs will cause Michigan’s economy to tank. 

“For the lowest tariff cost vehicles we expect prices to go up somewhere between $2,500 and $5,000 per car,” Anderson said. “For a lot of mid-priced cars (it will go up) $5,000, $8,000, $10,000.”

Anderson said Michigan’s close ties to the auto industry are a good thing. However, it also makes us more vulnerable to recessions.

“Also, in this case, (more vulnerable to) a huge U-turn in terms of trade policy,” he added. “(Now) that’s being undertaken by the Trump administration, which has very negative effects on our ability to build cars and sell cars here in Michigan and in other states.”

As long as the tariffs are in place, he says it’s not likely to get better.

“I don’t see any upside to higher tariffs for states like Michigan any time in the next…year,” Anderson said. “You might get some production to move to some plants, but you’re already seeing — and this is just in days — reductions in employment.”

The cratering stock market — in addition to the tariffs — feeds into itself and makes things even worse.

“You’re seeing a huge toll on people’s retirement savings that affects whether or not they’re going to buy cars,” Anderson said.

And if higher prices lead to a drop in sales and manufacturing, the state and region will drop into an avoidable collapse, he said.

“Because you can’t take this much of a, really a baseball bat to auto sales, if that’s your leading industry, and not expect there to be employment losses.”

Auto companies are also navigating the reversal of fuel economy standards, dialed down greenhouse gas emission standards and a host of electric vehicle policy rollbacks.

Associated Press writers Stan Choe, Alexa St. John and Paul Wiseman contributed to this report.

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