Michigan’s Democratic U.S. Senate Primary is one of the most closely watched and deeply debated in the country.   

With less than two weeks to go before election day, Congresswoman Haley Stevens and Dr. Abdul El-Sayed have gained supporters from across the state. 

Retired General Motors worker Theresa Landrum backs Stevens and her “fight” for the US Senate seat. 

“We need a fighter like that to fight tooth and nail for the people that are going to be harmed by this current administration,” Landrum said. 

El-Sayed supporter Andrew Lyon of Ferndale was originally set to support State Senator Mallory McMorrow’s bid, but a friend offered other options.  

“My friend was like, ‘Oh no, you gotta check out Abdul.’ And then I looked him up. I think it was on TikTok,” Lyon said. “(I) started following him, and then instantly (switched). What he wants to fight for is exactly what I believe in.” 

What are they fighting for? 

Stevens has promised to push back on the Trump Administration and the president himself. 

“I’m just fired up to be out here putting my hand up for Michigan in this serious moment,” Stevens said. “It’s no joke what is going on, with Donald Trump stealing from people, illegal impoundments of funds, going after voting rights.” 

El-Sayed says he has no love for the president, but he’s fighting against the Democratic Party’s centrist establishment too.   

“I’m not dangerous if you’re someone who needs government to work for you. But if you’re Chuck Schumer, damn right I’m dangerous,” El-Sayed said. “If you are someone who wants to stand in the way of government working for people, I am dangerous.” 

According to Adam Carlson, founding partner of Zenith Research, only 47% of democrats have a favorable opinion of Schumer.  He was commissioned to do a poll for the pro-El-Sayed veterans group Common Defense.   

It’s not like Democrats couldn’t see this coming. One of the first things that Mallory McMorrow did when she announced her run for Senate in 2025 was call for Schumer’s removal as Senate Minority Leader.  

In New York and Colorado, progressive candidates have primaried centrist incumbents and won. The big question is whether wins in deep blue districts can be replicated in purple states like Michigan.  

Carlson said the rage against the Democratic political machine leaves voters open to a left-wing populist.  

“I’ve never seen in my 13 years doing this voters so angry, frustrated with like conventional wisdom, and being told who is electable, and just inflation, cost of living, and all that. Just much more responsive to populism, more than a left-right divide,” Carlson said.  

Stevens – who has been supported by Schumer from the beginning of her run – doesn’t see this race as a referendum on Democratic Party leadership.   

“There are some people who are running who assume that’s what this race is all about, and I don’t think that’s fair to the people of Michigan,” Stevens said. “I believe that this race is about the future of Michigan and our workforce, and who’s going to get points on the scoreboard for organized labor.” 

What do voters want in their candidates? 

A recent poll by the Michigan-based Glengariff Group showed that the top two things voters want out of a Democratic senate candidate are “fighters” and someone who is “electable.”   

For Stevens supporters, electability is all about the general.   

Retired U.S. Senator Debbie Stabenow and retiring Senator Gary Peters both believe Stevens can beat Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers. Peters thinks Stevens will be able to face down a ton of money from Republicans in the general.   

“That’s why you have to have someone who has a proven track record of actually winning tough races. And that’s Haley Stevens,” Peters said. “She’s won tough races. She’s had that kind of money spent against her from outside forces. She’s an independent voice who stands up for Michigan folks.” 

But in this primary, those outside forces are on her side.   

Independent Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders spoke at a recent El-Sayed campaign event in Detroit about how he views this race. 

 

“With all due respect to Congresswoman Stevens, everyone knows that this is not an election between her and Abdul El-Sayed,” Sanders said. “This is an election between Abdul and the billionaire class.” 

Stevens doesn’t care for that characterization, but seems to agree that getting money out of politics is a good thing.   

“The thing is, is that we have to pass the laws to stop dark money. It is not about whether I say it or not as a point of altruism. This is actually about changing our laws,” Stevens said.  

With nearly $70 million spent so far, MIRS news is reporting that this is the second most expensive Democratic Senate primary ever, with a chance to supplant the 2024 Democratic primary in California.  

But it’s not just the money, it’s where it is coming from. El-Sayed is running the stronger grassroots campaign, taking money and ground game support from unions and related PACs totaling $850,000.  

He’s consistently been in the top 5 fundraisers on the Democratic fundraising platform Act Blue, a site that specializes in small dollar donations. Last quarter, El-Sayed outgained Stevens $4.5 million to $2 million in grassroots support and drew $65,000 more in individual donations than Stevens.  

More than $50 million has been spent on Stevens, largely in the form of TV and streaming ads. If you’ve turned on something with a screen in the past month, you’ve likely seen one. 

Since her first run for Congress in 2018, Stevens’ ties to the Obama-era auto bailout have been a center point of her campaign – though she’s never earned the endorsement of the United Auto Workers.   

What are the demographics of voters? 

Micqoua Franklin was one of the many that chatted with Stevens at a Juneteenth event in Detroit, and she said that as a Black voter, Stevens is “for us.” 

“Obama had her. That’s Obama girl. Obama girl is my girl. I know she’s gonna do right by us,” Franklin said.  

Polling backs up at sentiment too, with Stevens often having a 2 to 1 advantage among Black voters. However, President Obama has not made an endorsement in this race. 

At the rally in Detroit that featured Senator Sanders and Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the demographics of the largely white crowd didn’t match up with that of America’s largest majority-Black city. El-Sayed, who was the health department director for the city and the county writ-large, said he’s put in the work.   

 

“I’ve chosen to work in communities like Detroit and Wayne County, majority Black communities, to take on inequities my whole career. People are going to say what they say,” El-Sayed said. “My job is just to focus on defending the folks that I’ve been defending since I got into public service and let my work speak for itself.” 

There’s also the matter of the 2024 presidential election where many in the Black community felt betrayed by the Muslim and Arab American communities, resulting in a lingering resentment being heaped upon El-Sayed. 

Detroit political fixer Adoplh Mongo is one voter who echoes this sentiment. 

“He didn’t support Kamala Harris when she ran for president,” Mongo said. “He was like vote for none of the above that that sort of thing, and then when he did come to support, it was half-ass support.” 

However, El-Sayed did endorse Vice President Harris soon after she became the presumptive nominee. Fair or not, it’s a common perception among Black voters and politicos.   

Mongo is not a fan of Stevens either… citing her ‘yes’ vote for a resolution honoring slain conservative provocateur Charlie Kirk. Even so, Mongo says Black voters will likely support whomever in the general election.   

“Democrats, they the most unloyal people in the world in Detroit. And you know we love them—I’m saying Black folks—when they don’t even love us,” Mongo said. 

Campaign ads and Middle Eastern conflict 

A Stronger Michigan is one of the dark money groups putting up millions in ads for Stevens. There’s also UDP, or the United Democracy Project. Sounds bland enough, but it’s a front for AIPAC – the American Israel Political Affairs Committee.   

Stevens is not Jewish but is an advocate for Israel.   

“I will continue to fight for the people of Israel. I will continue to fight for Israel’s existence,” Stevens said. “Israel comes to me in my dreams. I see Israel’s future. And I know that Israel will continue to exist for the Jewish people!”

Four years ago, when redistricting had Stevens and former Congressman Andy Levin – who is Jewish – battling it out in a primary, AIPAC kicked in millions to help Stevens win.  

This time, AIPAC is helping to defeat El-Sayed, a Muslim. 

AIPAC wants to keep American money and weapons flowing to Israel. American taxpayer support of Israel’s attacks in Gaza and Lebanon has become a political flashpoint.  

Last year, the United Nations and the International Association of Genocide Scholars have released reports classifying Israel’s attacks in Gaza as genocide.  

Last week, Stevens voted to continue funding and arming Israel without conditions.  

El-Sayed—and many of his supporters— believe that too. 

Robert Baker, a voter from Westland, considers this issue to be “right at the top of” his list. 

“For the last three years, we’ve been seeing nonstop destruction in Gaza. We’ve seen what it was and what it is now, and all the people that are dead, all the people missing, and all the war crimes that are being recorded by IDF soldiers and published,” Baker said. “I feel like Abdul is someone that is going to take charge to make sure that this kind of stuff stops happening in our politics, and that our politics stops getting sold out to AIPAC and other big corporation PACs.” 

When Mongo talks about feeling betrayed by Muslim and Arab American voters who did not lend their support to Kamala Harris, US foreign policy toward Israel was the reason. Harris refused to distance herself from President Biden’s position, and it cost her politically.  

In a general election, her Pro-Israel stance could cost Stevens too. Data from Carlson’s poll seems to suggest it could have an impact. 

“31% of very progressive and liberal voters hold a strongly unfavorable view of Haley Stevens,” Carlson said. “26% of very progressive liberal voters say they’re undecided if Stevens is nominee against Mike Rogers.” 

El-Sayed knows he has an uphill battle when it comes to electability and likeability because of his faith. The Michigan Republican Party has already taken to referring to him by his full name: Abdulrahman Mohamed El-Sayed. It’s a scaremongering tactic and why everyone know President Obama’s middle name is Hussein.  

El-Sayed brushes off things like that because getting angry about it gives them what they want. 

 

“I’ve been Abdul my whole life,” El-Sayed said.  “I was Abdul when I got voted captain on my high school football team and wrestling team and lacrosse team by people who weren’t named Abdul, who didn’t have names like mine. The reason they supported me is because my whole life I’ve been explaining myself, and so you get pretty good at explaining yourself, and I’ve learned that when people get past the name, they’re a lot more interested in what you have to say.”

Who will win on August 4? 

Stevens is less reliant on charm and more reliant on millions being pumped into TV and streaming ads. Her canvassing efforts have been lacking.  

El-Sayed has over 10,000 campaign volunteers. His lawn signs are everywhere – not just in Metro Detroit but outstate as well. Recent rallies drew thousands in a way Stevens has been unable to replicate. But lawn signs don’t vote, and rallies are often packed with volunteers.  

Will El-Sayed prove that charisma and lefty populist politics can be palatable in a purple state? 

Can Stevens get by on her stay-the-course center left politics and campaign ad ubiquity? 

Michigan’s primary election is August 4.