Fantasy football draft season has arrived, and every edge matters if you want to outsmart your league. That’s where we come in. Welcome to the 2025 edition of the Perfect Draft, your round-by-round road map to building the strongest possible roster from any draft slot.

Before we dive in, a quick reminder of what we mean by “perfect.” This isn’t about following average draft position blindly or chasing last year’s breakout stars. Instead, we optimize each pick by blending expert rankings with 2025-specific factors: injury risk, projected opportunity, positional scarcity and strength of schedule.

The result? Draft strategies that are built to outperform the average team week after week, positioning you to make a deep playoff run.

Our process begins with consensus expert rankings from FantasyPros and layers on our own projections, adjusted for injury probability and other context. This allows us to pinpoint where the real value lies. You can read more about the methodology here.

Keep in mind: This is the perfect draft based on our 2025 outlook, which may differ sharply from public average draft positions. That’s by design. When a player goes earlier or later than expected, it can give you an advantage. Use it.

(The draft grids below were crafted for a 12-team, point-per-reception league using the following starting lineup: one quarterback, two running backs, two wide receivers, one tight end, one flex player (RB/WR/TE), one defense, a kicker and seven bench players.)

Prioritize elite running backs early, chase upside late

When drafting in the top two rounds, only take a running back if you can land a true difference-maker. Bijan Robinson (Atlanta Falcons) remains the premier option, offering three-down volume, red-zone usage and receiving upside. Jahmyr Gibbs (Detroit Lions) is another ideal early-round target in point-per-reception formats, thanks to his elite explosiveness and pass-catching ability.

Saquon Barkley (Philadelphia Eagles), however, is a risk because of his age, injury history and previous workload. Draft him with caution.

Las Vegas Raiders rookie Ashton Jeanty is drafted higher here than most cheat sheets, thanks to a big expected workload under new Coach Pete Carroll. In the past two NFL seasons he coached, 2022 and 2023, the lead backs in Carroll’s offense averaged 57 percent of the team’s carries, per data from TruMedia, compared to the league average of less than 50 percent. Jeanty, the No. 6 overall pick in this year’s NFL draft, is poised for a big debut season.

If none of the elite backs are available, pivot to wide receiver and embrace Zero RB – a draft strategy in which you skip running backs early and load up on wide receivers, a top tight end and a top quarterback. You then draft late-round or waiver-wire running backs with breakout potential. Be warned, though, you need these late running backs to be productive or your whole season will fall apart.

Invest in wide receivers early, and stack depth throughout

From Rounds 1 through 7, focus on securing alpha wideouts who can anchor your weekly scoring. Ja’Marr Chase (Cincinnati Bengals) and Justin Jefferson (Minnesota Vikings) are the top options, but our projections like Brian Thomas Jr. (Jacksonville Jaguars) as the No. 3 option, followed by Nico Collins (Houston Texans) and Puka Nacua of the Los Angeles Rams. Even if you miss on the top options, though, you’ll find tremendous value in emerging breakout candidates such as the Falcons’ Drake London and the Giants’ Malik Nabers.

From Rounds 8 to 12, the goal shifts to depth and upside. Target slot specialists such as Josh Downs of the Indianapolis Colts or point-per-reception-friendly players such as Chris Olave (New Orleans Saints) who can deliver WR3 production. Also look for rookies with major roles (Tetairoa McMillan of the Carolina Panthers or Emeka Egbuka of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers).

In later rounds, stash wide receivers with WR3 or flex potential if things break right. That includes return-from-injury candidates such as Christian Watson (Green Bay Packers) or young wide receivers in unsettled depth charts such as Marvin Mims Jr. (Denver Broncos). These picks won’t win you the week early on but they could be difference-makers by November.

Overall, wide receiver is where you should be aggressive early and often.

Lock in a top tight end early, or wait for breakout candidates

For 2025, the optimal tight end strategy is simple, either secure an elite option early or wait for mid-to-late value – just don’t consider the middle tiers.

If selecting in Rounds 2 to 4 target Brock Bowers of the Raiders, Trey McBride of the Arizona Cardinals or George Kittle of the San Francisco 49ers. Bowers dominated as a rookie with record-setting reception and yardage totals, earning all‑pro and Pro Bowl honors. McBride posted 111 receptions for 1,146 yards last season and projects as a high-floor, high-ceiling target monster. Kittle remains a volatile but elite playmaker with weekly upside in a potent offense.

In Round 13, make a TE2 dart throw, perhaps a rookie such as Colston Loveland (Chicago Bears) or the Colts’ Tyler Warren, players who carry major upside if given opportunity later in the season.

Be patient at quarterback and wait for value

The perfect quarterback draft strategy in 2025 hinges on patience and positional value. In Round 3, consider drafting a top quarterback such as Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow, the Washington Commanders’ Jayden Daniels, the Baltimore Ravens’ Lamar Jackson, the Buffalo Bills’ Josh Allen or Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts.

However, the sweet spot for landing your QB1 is Rounds 6 to 10. This is where you’ll find high-upside options such as Justin Fields, now operating in a more modern New York Jets offense, and Brock Purdy, a steady, efficient producer in a loaded San Francisco scheme. In general, you should prioritize quarterbacks with either elite rushing upside or a high weekly floor tied to offensive efficiency.

If looking to round out your roster with a backup quarterback, take a shot on one playing in a new system or bounce-back situation, such as Las Vegas’s Geno Smith or the Seattle Seahawks’ Sam Darnold.

Draft day in fantasy football isn’t just about picking stars. It’s about managing risk. Talent and stats matter, but injuries, aging and opportunity shifts can derail a player’s season. Just ask anyone who didn’t follow our advice on Christian McCaffrey last season.

To help you navigate that uncertainty, we’ve analyzed the top 100 names on draft boards through the lens of those three key risk factors. Keep in mind, though, that things move fast. Always check the latest reports before locking in your picks.

Perhaps the biggest risk in this year’s fantasy draft is Philadelphia Eagles star running back Saquon Barkley. He’s being selected as a top-10 overall pick and one of the first three running backs off the board on the strength of his outstanding 2024, but the data screams caution.

Barkley led the NFL with 345 carries last season, a workload topped by only Derrick Henry over the past decade, and the track record for running backs coming off that kind of usage is alarming. Since 2002, there have been 33 instances of a running back logging 340 or more carries in a season. The following year, 26 saw their production in point-per-reception leagues drop – by an average of 44 percent. Barkley also overperformed in the touchdown department in 2024, converting 13 scores on the ground when his expected number was closer to seven, per data from NFLverse.

Plus, he has endured injuries throughout his career, with varying degrees of severity. The most significant was a torn ACL, a partially torn meniscus and an MCL sprain in his right knee, suffered during Week 2 of the 2020 season, that sidelined him for the final 14 games of the year. The injury predictor for fantasy football site Draft Sharks rates him as a “medium risk” who is projected to miss 1.4 games in 2025.

And, finally, Barkley turns 29 in February. That’s an age when running backs are often in the declining stage of their career.

Given the mileage, the likelihood of regression and the cost, Barkley carries far more downside than his average draft position suggests. Here are other fantasy picks that should give you pause.

 

RB Derrick Henry, Ravens

First-round pick in 12-team PPR leagues

Concern: Age

Playing running back in the NFL is a young man’s game. The physical demands of the position lead to steep drop-offs in production, which can be seen in fantasy scoring as well – few players have maintained RB1 value past age 30, and even fewer have sustained heavy usage without injury.

While Henry, 31, has been remarkably durable and productive throughout his career, he has accumulated more than 2,500 touches. That kind of wear often precedes sudden decline, even for outliers such as the 6-foot-2, 252-pound Henry. It’s also worth noting that Baltimore could look to preserve Henry for the postseason and rotate in younger options such as Keaton Mitchell during the regular season.

 

TE Travis Kelce, Chiefs

Sixth-round pick in 12-team PPR leagues

Concern: Age

Kelce’s decline has become increasingly evident over the past few seasons. Once elite in this category, Kelce averaged just 3.5 yards after the catch last season and broke only four tackles, a steep fall from his decade-long average of 15.7. His red-zone usage also has regressed since a historic 2022, with fewer targets and less scoring efficiency inside the 10-yard line.

While his snap share rebounded in 2024, his production no longer matched the volume. After his years of elite fantasy output, finishing sixth in fantasy points per game in PPR leagues last season was the clearest sign yet that his dominance is fading.

 

RB Joe Mixon, Texans

Fifth-round pick in 12-team PPR leagues

Concern: Injury

Lower-body injuries can linger and often reduce explosiveness, which is especially concerning for a 29-year-old running back with more than 2,100 career touches such as Mixon. Even if he returns from his foot injury by Week 1, his workload and effectiveness could be limited – and the arrival of Nick Chubb could eat into his role. Add it all up, and it makes Mixon a risky RB2.

 

WR Chris Godwin, Buccaneers

Sixth-round pick in 12-team PPR leagues

Concern: Injury

Godwin’s spot on the physically unable to perform list with an ankle injury raises concerns about his early-season availability and fantasy reliability. Ankle injuries often take time to fully heal, especially for receivers who rely on sharp route running and quick cuts. Missing training camp reps also opens the door for other Buccaneers wideouts to earn larger roles – including first-round pick Emeka Egbuka, who has drawn praise from teammates during training camp.

 

WR Puka Nacua, Rams

First-round pick in 12-team PPR leagues

Concern: Opportunity

In Nacua’s two seasons alongside Cooper Kupp, the Rams rarely supported two high-end fantasy wide receivers simultaneously. Even though Nacua is clearly the team’s top target, the arrival of Davante Adams – still a productive possession receiver, even at 32 – could eat into Nacua’s league-leading target share. The Rams’ run-heavy approach and quarterback Matthew Stafford’s lingering back issues are further cause for concern.

 

RB Breece Hall, Jets

Third-round pick in 12-team PPR leagues

Concern: Opportunity

Hall has long been an enticing fantasy option because of his explosiveness, but the presence of fellow running backs Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis and the arrival of a new coaching staff bring uncertainty.

“I think all three [are] going to play,” offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand said. “Those top three guys, they’re all pretty darn good football players, and they all have a little bit of a different skill set. … We’ll see how the game plan goes, but they’ll all be involved in one way, shape or form.”

Mobile quarterback Justin Fields also is in the mix, raising more concerns about Hall’s ability to get consistent touches and receiving volume. He’s a true boom-or-bust RB2.