Trump tariffs on Canada lumber could chop U.S. wood supplies
President Trump is threatening to raise tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber to 27 % as soon as this week.
The move could impact everything in the U.S. from lumber needed to build affordable housing to wood chips used to make toilet paper.
Trump says his administration would compensate by harvesting more trees from national forests, which includes several in Michigan.
But some experts say it’s not that simple.
The Michigan Sustainable Forestry Initiative’s Jesse Randall says the issue goes beyond how many trees are available in the state or the nation.
Listen: Trump tariffs on Canada lumber could chop U.S. wood supplies
Jesse Randall: Michigan sits kind of at the forefront of very high-valued timber. And we utilize it in a sustainable manner. I think the material that the president is looking at in terms of tariffs is really going to affect our partners in the Pacific Northwest and down South. I know of one Michigan producer who says they haven’t seen any major uptick because of these proposed tariffs yet.
I think tariffs are a double-edged sword. Our mills and our operators are constantly needing to procure and maintain equipment. So I think that will cost them more money, tariffs or anything that will shut down a supply coming in that is used for construction.
We’re really facing now the start of that spring building period. I think that will add extra pressure to it. And I think you might see, at least initially, some speculative up-buying where people are trying to lock in what they’re going to need for the near term, not knowing what the tariffs will do or if they will be in place for very long.
Some of these larger companies are diversified across the border. I do know that some shipments were held up, they cost a little bit more to get into the country. I believe that’s going to be a blip on the radar and it’ll work itself out.
Quinn Klinefelter, WDET News: Why do you think it’ll be just a blip on the radar?
JR: I think our U.S. mills have already begun to adjust to the possibility. I think they’ve already started to look at their procurement side of the equation and say, “If tariffs do come in and we get raw material from across the border, where will we have to source that from instead? Who are our major players on the procurement side?” I think what the proposed tariff has done is really sped up those conversations inside U.S. producers. “Who are we going to have new contracts with? How flexible are those contracts to ramp up?”
Frankly, right now, I see us having a bigger problem than running out of material. We’re going to run out of Qualified Logging Professionals (QLPs) to harvest the material. Within this country, we have an aging demographic in the forest products industry. Not a lot of folks are going into that profession. It’s a lot like agriculture, it’s getting older and they’re becoming more mechanized. But there’s still a level of retirement that is not being replaced with new logging professionals.
What’s scary to me is if these mills immediately call for more material coming from our woods, which we do have in Michigan, they won’t have people to harvest that wood, they won’t have people to haul that wood. That’s what we’re faced with.
We have 1,000 QLPs. That’s not enough to meet the demand that these mills would have if they ran wide open seven days a week. They don’t have the manpower.
QK: One of the things the Trump administration argues in favor of tariffs is that they will cause production to be based more in the U.S. Are you concerned primarily that there is just not enough qualified professionals here at the moment in the lumber business? Or are there other factors you worry about, if it was going to be mainly a U.S.-based timber industry, as opposed to using lumber from Canada?
JR: The cost of entry into this. The equipment is incredibly expensive. Interest rates have risen to the point where the machinery has gotten out of direct reach for a lot of new people to get into. It’s a lot like agriculture. I would have loved as a young adult to have gotten into either forestry or agriculture. But you need to almost be born into an agricultural family that has an established business to be your own producer. It’s very hard for a new person to break in and pay for this equipment and make go of it.
Now, if there’s increased demand and there’s a lack of QLPs, supply and demand laws tell us that the price per unit goes up. Perhaps that will attract more new people to go out and get the loans to begin to start their own businesses.
But there’s another factor. We’ve also had a lot of natural disasters natiowide. And our Michigan QLPs and our trucking professionals are sought-after talent when natural disasters strike. We have a lot of QLPs and haulers that have been put under contract to go and respond to the storms down South and out in the central U.S.
QK: To get rid of fallen trees and the like?
JR: Correct. We saw a lot of that in North Carolina. And our QLPs had gotten these federal contracts to go out and really help those individual states after hurricanes and tornadoes. That all has to be cleaned up by somebody that knows what they’re doing, that has the right equipment. And those contracts aren’t one or two months. Those contracts are six to nine months. That effectively takes them out of Michigan for the better part of the harvest year. You don’t replace that equipment and that level of knowledge overnight. I can’t take a young person who is fresh out of high school or college and put them on a machine and have them be safe and productive. It takes years to develop those skills. And, right now, we have a loss of talent.
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