Analysis: Reports don’t mean there’s something real regarding Skubal extension
DETROIT – There is nothing new on Tarik Skubal contract extension front. Nothing new was reported Thursday when MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reiterated the Tigers “non-competitive” initial extension offer – which happened roughly a year ago at this time when the Tigers had Skubal under control for two seasons.
And if the numbers that Heyman and others threw out there are accurate – four years, roughly $100 million – then that would have been the highest extension offered to a pitcher prior to free agency, topping Justin Verlander’s $80 million extension in 2010.
Skubal, through his representation (Scott Boras), rejected the offer last year. But that, by no means, represents the Tigers’ base offer going into this offseason. To say there is a $250 million gap is just a guess. It’s not based on anything real.
Nobody truly knows whether there have been any new negotiations. Neither side is saying anything publicly. But the leverage points are different now on both sides with Skubal entering his final year of team control.
Spotrac, an industry data base for contracts, payrolls and market values, projected an eight-year extension worth $300 million ($37.5 million annual salary).
That doesn’t mean that’s the number Boras is seeking. That doesn’t mean Boras would accept any extension offer. He generally prefers to take his high-end clients on to the open market where 30 teams can bid.
It makes good fodder for website clicks and talk radio discussion, but these numbers that are being thrown around, again, aren’t based in fact. Information leaked from agents comes with an agenda. They are generally trying to build a market for their clients.
If information leaks out from the team, someone might get fired. Tigers president Scott Harris steadfastly refuses to talk about contracts or trades even in the most general terms.
Here was his answer when I asked him if the club faced a decision point this offseason on Skubal.
“Listen, I totally understand the question, and I understand that you have to ask me,” he said. “I’ve kind of learned over time, especially with this question, that general comments tend to get chopped up and forced into narratives. I can’t comment on our players being traded. I can’t comment on free agents. And I can’t comment on other teams’ players.
“So I’m going to respond by just not actually commenting on it. Tarik is a Tiger. I hope he wins the Cy Young for the second consecutive year. He’s an incredible pitcher and we’re lucky to have him. That’s all I can say on that.”
Things were read into Skubal’s statement on the issue, too. He was asked about his future immediately after the Tigers lost Game 5 of the ALDS in Seattle.
“My job is to play,” he said. “(It’s) not my job to do anything other than play. Those questions should be asked toward the front office and the people that make those decisions. But my job is to go out there and play.”
He wasn’t implying anything. He was simply saying what is fundamentally true: These decisions and discussions are between the Tigers and his agent. It’s not his place or in his best interest to comment publicly.
Free agency starts the day after the World Series ends. Qualifying offers go out five days after the World Series. Nov. 21 is the deadline for tendering arbitration-eligible players.
Skubal, per estimates by MLB Trade Rumors, could get as much as $17.8 million if he went to arbitration.
That’s where this is right now and that’s where it’s been. Nothing has changed. The Tigers options, presuming there will be no extension, are to seek a trade for Skubal this winter or ride it out in 2026 and try to win a championship with him.
The time for the Tigers to get the maximum return in a trade would’ve been last winter when he had two years of control left. Getting the same yield on a player with one guaranteed season left, even one as dominant as Skubal, is unlikely.
Trading him in-season, unless the team falls out of playoff contention, is sub-optimal, as well.
The Tigers traded Verlander at the trade deadline in 2017 and got Jake Rogers as part of the return package. The other prospects didn’t pan out. They lost Max Scherzer to free agency in 2015, getting a compensatory draft pick that ended up being Christin Stewart.
Anything can still happen. All scenarios are open. But nothing to this point has happened.

