Since the NFL expanded its postseason field to 14 teams in 2020, 19 teams have opened with 0-3 records. None of them have made the playoffs.

But while winless starts have proved to be a ticket out of contention, hot starts can be misleading. Since 2020, half of the 3-0 teams that made the playoff field (11 of 22) lost in the first round. Three others failed to make the postseason at all.

Several 2025 teams have made it through three weeks unbeaten, but their places in our rankings vary significantly – from the very top tier to the middle of the pack. Their records may be perfect for now, but their future success is far from certain.

As a reminder: These rankings differ from most of our counterparts in that they are not tied to win-loss records or nonquantifiable ideas such as momentum or positive vibes. They are simply a reflection of what our model says are the best teams in the NFL right now and how they should be expected to perform moving forward.

Top contenders

1. Baltimore Ravens (1-2)

2. Buffalo Bills (3-0)

3. Green Bay Packers (2-1)

4. Detroit Lions (2-1)

5. Philadelphia Eagles (3-0)

Baltimore is still No. 1 despite two losses? Yes. Hear me out.

This is where these power rankings diverge, sometimes considerably, from those that are simply regurgitations of win-loss records. These rankings are more indicative of what a team will do for the rest of the season, not what it has done in a three-game sample.

The Ravens’ two losses are by one point to the Bills (which required some heroics by Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen and an uncharacteristic fumble by Baltimore running back Derrick Henry) and by one possession to the Lions (who played a virtually flawless game and benefited from another Henry fumble), two of the four strongest teams in the NFL, per our ratings.

If you think that’s totally off the mark, consider that my power ratings set the spread for Sunday’s game between the Ravens and Chiefs in Kansas City at Ravens -2, while the Vegas line is Ravens -2.5. In other words, the sportsbooks are even more bullish on Baltimore than I am.

Besides, the Packers’ loss to Cleveland underscored how fragile the top of the NFL can be. Green Bay’s banged-up offensive line left Jordan Love little chance against the Browns’ relentless pass rush. Still, the Packers remain part of an elite cluster alongside the Bills, Lions, Ravens and Eagles, all of whom have shown they can win ugly or pull away for big victories.

Strong challengers

6. Kansas City Chiefs (1-2)

7. Los Angeles Chargers (3-0)

8. Los Angeles Rams (2-1)

Kansas City finally broke through for a win, though Patrick Mahomes had to weather dropped passes and fumbles to get it. The Chiefs’ ceiling remains high (mostly because of their reputation and the chances of key wide receivers returning soon), but right now they’re not as impressive as the NFL’s true elite. The Rams and Chargers round out this group; they can dominate for stretches but haven’t shown the consistency to belong in the top five.

Solid playoff teams

9. Minnesota Vikings (2-1)

10. Denver Broncos (1-2)

11. Seattle Seahawks (2-1)

12. Washington Commanders (2-1)

13. Indianapolis Colts (3-0)

Nobody expected Daniel Jones to open the season playing like an MVP candidate for the Colts, but here we are. Indianapolis is off to a 3-0 start fueled by Jones’s clean passing and timely scrambles, along with running back Jonathan Taylor’s explosive ability. The Vikings validated our (relatively) high ranking by blowing out the Cincinnati Bengals, 48-10.

In the hunt for playoff spots

14. San Francisco 49ers (3-0)

15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-0)

16. Arizona Cardinals (2-1)

The 49ers lead the competitive NFC West after a last-second win over Arizona, but their success might not last. Star pass rusher Nick Bosa became their latest injury casualty, lost for the season with a torn ACL.

 

Average teams

17. Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1)

18. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-1)

19. Houston Texans (0-3)

20. Dallas Cowboys (1-2)

The Jaguars land here because their defense has carried the load while their offense struggles with uneven play. Even with Jacksonville’s two-game advantage over the Texans, whom they just beat Sunday, our model sees little difference between them.

 

Below-average teams

21. Chicago Bears (1-2)

22. Las Vegas Raiders (1-2)

23. Cleveland Browns (1-2)

Cleveland leaned on its defense to squeeze out a win over Green Bay, but the offense still looks lost. Chicago bounced back with a big win over Dallas, but our model will need to see the Bears play well against a stronger defense before they move up much.

 

Rebuilding phase

24. New England Patriots (1-2)

25. New York Giants (0-3)

26. Miami Dolphins (0-3)

27. Atlanta Falcons (1-2)

28. Cincinnati Bengals (2-1)

29. New York Jets (0-3)

30. Carolina Panthers (1-2)

31. Tennessee Titans (0-3)

32. New Orleans Saints (0-3)

The Giants’ offense already has driven fans to call for a quarterback change, a clear sign of where things stand. (Rookie Jaxson Dart will get his shot Sunday.) Carolina’s blowout win over the Falcons did little to change its long-term outlook.