Bye week check-in: NFC North breakdown ahead of back half of Lions’ season
The Detroit Lions on Tuesday became the fourth and final team in the NFC North to enter its bye week, getting some time off later in the calendar than the Green Bay Packers (Week 5), Chicago Bears (Week 5) and Minnesota Vikings (Week 6).
An idle date in Week 8 doesn’t split the season in half — Detroit (5-2) has 10 games to go, plus whatever is to come in a potential postseason run — but it serves as a well-deserved break for the Lions, who rank third in points scored per game (30.7) and 12th in points allowed (21.6) this season.With four NFC North contests still to come, including one apiece against the Packers and Bears, we’ll break down the resume of each of Detroit’s divisional foes, as well as why Lions fans should (and shouldn’t) be hopeful for their upcoming matchups.
Green Bay Packers
Record: 4-1-1
Winning percentage of remaining opponents: .563 (seventh highest)
Remaining game vs. Lions: Week 13
The skinny: The Packers opened their season with a statement win over the Lions, stifling Detroit’s offense before doing the same to the Washington Commanders in Week 2. There were consecutive hiccups in the two following weeks — the Cleveland Browns pulled off an unlikely upset, and the Dallas Cowboys played Green Bay to a tie — but the Packers are winners of two straight, and, based on winning percentage, currently lead the NFC North.
Reason for optimism: Dan Campbell’s Lions haven’t been swept by an in-division opponent since the Bears did it in 2021. Week 1’s result against the Packers was worrisome, especially when a number of Detroit’s perceived flaws (fresh coordinators, new-look offensive line) were evident. But those issues have largely dissipated in the weeks since, and the Packers, particularly on defense, don’t look to be the juggernaut they appeared early on.
Reason to be worried: Defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley is proficient at limiting explosive plays. Green Bay’s pass defense allows 5.0 yards per play (third-lowest, behind the Denver Broncos and Atlanta Falcons), and its run defense holds opponents to -0.13 Expected Points Added (EPA) per play, the fifth-best mark in the NFL. Communication issues were a problem for the Lions’ offensive line in Week 1. That can’t happen again against a defensive front — Micah Parsons, Rashan Gary, Devonte Wyatt and Colby Wooden — as talented as the Packers’.
Chicago Bears
Record: 4-2
Winning percentage of remaining opponents: .534 (13th)
Remaining game vs. Lions: Week 18
The skinny: The Bears, in Ben Johnson’s first year as head coach, are undefeated since getting blown out by the Lions in Week 2. They’ve beat up on a couple inferior opponents (the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 4 and New Orleans Saints in Week 7), but have solid wins against the Cowboys in Week 3 and Commanders in Week 6. Impressive about Chicago’s victory over Dallas: The Bears held the Cowboys’ high-powered offense to 14 points, its fewest this season.
Reason for optimism: If there’s one thing the Lions are going to sell out to do defensively, it’s stop the run. That matches up well with the Bears, who are a run-first team — they’ve run the ball on 46.8% of their offensive snaps, the fifth-highest rate in the league. If the Lions can slow the Bears on the ground or jump out to an early lead and force Chicago to play catch-up, it’s a firm advantage for Detroit.
Reason to be worried: One would naturally think Chicago’s recent success is due to the offense, given Johnson’s history. But the Bears are rolling defensively, particularly on the back end. Tyrique Stevenson’s overall defensive grade from Pro Football Focus since Week 3 (91.7) ranks second among qualified cornerbacks, and Kevin Byard’s mark over that stretch (89.9) is second among safeties. The Bears have forced 15 turnovers over their last four games, including 10 interceptions. Four of those INTs have been courtesy of Byard.
Minnesota Vikings
Record: 3-4
Winning percentage of remaining opponents: .568 (5th)
Remaining games vs. Lions: Weeks 9, 17
The skinny: The Vikings fell to the Los Angeles Chargers on Thursday, picking up their third loss in their last four tries. Things looked promising early in the season as backup quarterback Carson Wentz led a 48-10 clobbering of the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 3, but Minnesota is 1-3 since, with losses to the Pittsburgh Steelers (Week 4), Philadelphia Eagles (Week 7) and Chargers (Week 8). The lone win came against the Cleveland Browns (Week 5).
Reason for optimism: If second-year quarterback J.J. McCarthy returns from injury in Week 9, Detroit’s defense could feast on an inexperienced QB who has struggled in seven of his eight quarters of professional football; outside of a 21-point final frame against the Bears in Week 1, the Vikings have scored just 12 points on 19 total possessions with McCarthy at QB. Even if the Vikings keep McCarthy on the bench in Week 9, Wentz (110-of-169 for 1,216 yards, six touchdowns and five interceptions this season) has hardly been a world-beater.
Reason to be worried: Minnesota’s pass defense is once again strong this season, ranking fourth in EPA per pass attempt (-0.17). Cornerback Isaiah Rodgers has proven to be a helpful offseason addition, and defensive end Jonathan Greenard (30 pressures) continues to show his value as a pass rusher. The Vikings’ excellence against the pass should come as no surprise, as coordinator Brian Flores has been doing this for years. In fairness to the Lions, though, we’ve seen them handle a Flores-led defense before; quarterback Jared Goff has a passer rating of 110.5 in his last four meetings with Flores.

