Drivers can expect to pay at least $1.50 more for a gallon of gasoline this Memorial Day weekend than they did a year ago.

AAA says it expects more than 1.3 million people in Michigan to travel at least 50 miles from home between May 22 and May 25 despite high fuel costs.

But is that estimate realistic?

Gas Buddy published its own seasonal travel survey. 56% of the people who responded say they plan to drive more than 2 hours to their destination this summer. That’s down from 69% in 2025. 

67% said gas prices are directly impacting their driving plans. 36% said rising costs are causing them to take fewer road trips.

Gas Buddy Senior Petroleum Analyst Patrick DeHaan says the average price could reach $4.80 per gallon between Memorial Day and Labor Day.

“That would be higher than 2022’s summer average of $4.43 a gallon,” he says. “But much of that is going to be contingent on whether or not the Strait of Hormuz reopens, and when it does.”

War fuels uncertainty

Iran has restricted ship traffic in the strait since the U.S. attacked the oil-rich country in March. DeHaan says that’s costing the world about 20 million barrels of oil daily.

The U.S. and other nations have released some of their strategic oil reserves to minimize the war’s impact. But DeHaan says that’s only a short-term fix.

“It’s kind of like replacing a broke water main with a paper straw—it’s just not enough,” he says. “And once those releases end, we could see a bit of whiplash with higher prices.”

Rolling back or suspending state and federal fuel taxes may help temporarily. But DeHaan says he doubts drivers will set any travel records this summer if prices climb.

“Those types of big increases are hard for many Americans to stomach,” he says. “And that is why we’re likely seeing a little bit of a decline in the amount of Americans willing to hit the road.”